Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于6月17日惠灵顿的最高温度？
6月17日惠灵顿的最高温度？
14°C 43%
15°C 42%
16°C 6%
13°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-06-17
9°C或以下
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
2%
13°C
5%
14°C
43%
15°C
42%
16°C
6%
17°C
2%
18°C
2%
19°C或更高
<1%
14°C 43%
15°C 42%
16°C 6%
13°C 5%
最新
最新
2026-06-17
9°C或以下
$5 交易量
<1%
10°C
$15 交易量
<1%
11°C
$15 交易量
1%
12°C
$0 交易量
2%
13°C
$34 交易量
5%
14°C
$334 交易量
43%
15°C
$175 交易量
42%
16°C
$482 交易量
6%
17°C
$0 交易量
2%
18°C
$0 交易量
2%
19°C或更高
$15 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
交易量
$692结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Wellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$692结束日期
2026-06-17市场开放时间
Jun 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETWellington's June 17 maximum temperature market reflects tight trader consensus around near-average winter conditions, with 14°C and 15°C each holding roughly 42% implied probability. Official guidance from MetService and NIWA points to a high near 13°C under typical cool-season southerly or westerly flow, consistent with the 1991-2020 climatological mean of 12-13°C. The narrow spread between leading outcomes stems from ensemble forecast uncertainty in low-level wind direction through Cook Strait and the precise timing of any weak frontal passage, which can shift daytime maxima by 1-2°C. Northerly advection or reduced cloud cover would favor the 15°C outcome, while an earlier southerly change would cap readings closer to 13-14°C. Updated model runs over the next 48 hours will likely drive the final resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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