Incumbent Republican Clay Higgins advanced as the party's nominee for Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District after the May 16 primaries were suspended on April 30 due to a Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais declaring the state's House map an unconstitutional gerrymander, while three Democratic candidates—John Day, Tia LeBrun, and Caleb Walker—face an unresolved primary. The district's R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index, ranking it the 19th most Republican nationally, combined with Higgins' consistent 65-70% victories in recent cycles and 72% Trump support in 2024, drives trader consensus implying a 91.5% Republican win probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Potential shifts could arise from redistricting creating a more competitive map, a consolidated strong Democratic challenger, or a major scandal affecting Higgins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$11,020 交易量
$11,020 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
92%
民主党
8%
$11,020 交易量
$11,020 交易量
2026-11-03
共和党
$3,970 交易量
92%
民主党
$7,050 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Clay Higgins advanced as the party's nominee for Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District after the May 16 primaries were suspended on April 30 due to a Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais declaring the state's House map an unconstitutional gerrymander, while three Democratic candidates—John Day, Tia LeBrun, and Caleb Walker—face an unresolved primary. The district's R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index, ranking it the 19th most Republican nationally, combined with Higgins' consistent 65-70% victories in recent cycles and 72% Trump support in 2024, drives trader consensus implying a 91.5% Republican win probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Potential shifts could arise from redistricting creating a more competitive map, a consolidated strong Democratic challenger, or a major scandal affecting Higgins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
交易量
$11,020结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Clay Higgins advanced as the party's nominee for Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District after the May 16 primaries were suspended on April 30 due to a Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais declaring the state's House map an unconstitutional gerrymander, while three Democratic candidates—John Day, Tia LeBrun, and Caleb Walker—face an unresolved primary. The district's R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index, ranking it the 19th most Republican nationally, combined with Higgins' consistent 65-70% victories in recent cycles and 72% Trump support in 2024, drives trader consensus implying a 91.5% Republican win probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Potential shifts could arise from redistricting creating a more competitive map, a consolidated strong Democratic challenger, or a major scandal affecting Higgins.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$11,020结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Clay Higgins advanced as the party's nominee for Louisiana's 3rd Congressional District after the May 16 primaries were suspended on April 30 due to a Supreme Court ruling in Louisiana v. Callais declaring the state's House map an unconstitutional gerrymander, while three Democratic candidates—John Day, Tia LeBrun, and Caleb Walker—face an unresolved primary. The district's R+22 Cook Partisan Voter Index, ranking it the 19th most Republican nationally, combined with Higgins' consistent 65-70% victories in recent cycles and 72% Trump support in 2024, drives trader consensus implying a 91.5% Republican win probability ahead of the November 3 general election. Potential shifts could arise from redistricting creating a more competitive map, a consolidated strong Democratic challenger, or a major scandal affecting Higgins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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