Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,332,722 交易量
$1,332,722 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,332,722 交易量
$1,332,722 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,332,722结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,332,722结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran negotiations, resumed in February 2026 after 2025 military strikes and Iranian protests, form the primary driver behind the 59% implied probability for a nuclear agreement before 2027. Recent developments include US envoy Steve Witkoff’s May 2026 submission of nuclear amendments addressing enrichment limits and verification, alongside indirect talks in Geneva and proposals for limited sanctions relief in exchange for uranium stockpile reductions. Persistent gaps remain over permanent enrichment restrictions, facility dismantlement, and immediate sanctions removal, yet both sides have continued engagement through Omani mediation. This diplomatic momentum, coupled with US military positioning in the region and Iran’s domestic pressures, underpins trader assessments that an accord remains plausible within the timeline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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