The sharp widening of the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit to $77.6 billion in May 2026, driven by a $23 billion surge in the goods shortfall amid rising imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles tied to AI demand alongside softer exports, has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The 70-80B outcome's 77% implied probability reflects continuity in these trends, reinforced by the advance goods deficit narrowing only modestly to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion, implying a services surplus could again produce a full deficit in the 70-80B range. With the official BEA/Census release scheduled for August 4, recent import moderation and stable services flows support the market consensus while leaving limited room for significant deviation absent last-minute revisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
80-90B 4.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
<50B
<1%
50-60B
5%
60-70B
16%
70-80B
77%
80-90B
5%
90-100B
5%
100B+
1%
70-80B 77%
60-70B 16%
50-60B 5%
80-90B 4.7%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
<50B
$397 交易量
<1%
50-60B
$293 交易量
5%
60-70B
$454 交易量
16%
70-80B
$6,247 交易量
77%
80-90B
$246 交易量
5%
90-100B
$246 交易量
5%
100B+
$357 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The sharp widening of the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit to $77.6 billion in May 2026, driven by a $23 billion surge in the goods shortfall amid rising imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles tied to AI demand alongside softer exports, has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The 70-80B outcome's 77% implied probability reflects continuity in these trends, reinforced by the advance goods deficit narrowing only modestly to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion, implying a services surplus could again produce a full deficit in the 70-80B range. With the official BEA/Census release scheduled for August 4, recent import moderation and stable services flows support the market consensus while leaving limited room for significant deviation absent last-minute revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
市场开放时间： Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ET
交易量
$8,239结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.The sharp widening of the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit to $77.6 billion in May 2026, driven by a $23 billion surge in the goods shortfall amid rising imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles tied to AI demand alongside softer exports, has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The 70-80B outcome's 77% implied probability reflects continuity in these trends, reinforced by the advance goods deficit narrowing only modestly to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion, implying a services surplus could again produce a full deficit in the 70-80B range. With the official BEA/Census release scheduled for August 4, recent import moderation and stable services flows support the market consensus while leaving limited room for significant deviation absent last-minute revisions.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services Deficit for June 2026, according to the monthly Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) report scheduled for August 4, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report for the specified month is expected to be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/intl-trade-investment/international-trade-goods-and-services
Note: This market will resolve based on the Monthly Deficit figure. The Three-Month Moving Average figure will have no bearing on this market. Any revisions to the Trade Deficit figure for the specified month made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for the specified month will not be considered.
If the BEA does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services report (https://www.bea.gov/news/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
交易量
$8,239结束日期
2026-08-04市场开放时间
Jul 29, 2026, 7:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The sharp widening of the U.S. goods-and-services trade deficit to $77.6 billion in May 2026, driven by a $23 billion surge in the goods shortfall amid rising imports of semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and vehicles tied to AI demand alongside softer exports, has anchored trader expectations for June near that level. The 70-80B outcome's 77% implied probability reflects continuity in these trends, reinforced by the advance goods deficit narrowing only modestly to $101.5 billion in June from $105.9 billion, implying a services surplus could again produce a full deficit in the 70-80B range. With the official BEA/Census release scheduled for August 4, recent import moderation and stable services flows support the market consensus while leaving limited room for significant deviation absent last-minute revisions.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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