Trade War Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Economy

Economy

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How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025? card icon

How much revenue will the U.S. raise from tariffs in 2025?

<$100b

35%

$100–200b

28%

<$100b

35%

$100–200b

28%

$3m Vol.

US GDP growth in Q4 2025? card icon

US GDP growth in Q4 2025?

<1.0%

2%

1.0–1.5%

6%

<1.0%

2%

1.0–1.5%

6%

$201k Vol.

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GDP growth in 2025 card icon

GDP growth in 2025

<0.5%

<1%

0.5–1.0%

<1%

<0.5%

<1%

0.5–1.0%

<1%

$745k Vol.

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Negative GDP growth in 2025? card icon

Negative GDP growth in 2025?

1%

chance

$102k Vol.

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025? card icon

Negative GDP growth in Q4 2025?

1%

chance

$23k Vol.

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GDP growth in 2026 card icon

GDP growth in 2026

<0.5%

13%

0.5–1.0%

8%

<0.5%

13%

0.5–1.0%

8%

$2k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Negative GDP growth in 2026? card icon

Negative GDP growth in 2026?

13%

chance

$10k Vol.

US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025? card icon

US tariff revenue up in Q4 2025?

90%

chance

$782 Vol.

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