Fed Rates Odds & Predictions | Polymarket

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Economy

Economy

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Fed decision in January? card icon

Fed decision in January?

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

50+ bps decrease

<1%

25 bps decrease

4%

$253m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair? card icon

Who will Trump nominate as Fed Chair?

Kevin Warsh

44%

Kevin Hassett

38%

Kevin Warsh

44%

Kevin Hassett

38%

$169m Vol.

Fed rate cut by...? card icon

Fed rate cut by...?

January Meeting

5%

March Meeting

36%

January Meeting

5%

March Meeting

36%

$113k Vol.

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? card icon

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)

3%

1 (25 bps)

10%

0 (0 bps)

3%

1 (25 bps)

10%

$2m Vol.

Fed decision in March? card icon

Fed decision in March?

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

29%

50+ bps decrease

1%

25 bps decrease

29%

$1m Vol.

repeat-3monthly
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...? card icon

Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by...?

March 31

7%

May 14

12%

March 31

7%

May 14

12%

$121k Vol.

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan) card icon

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Cut–Cut–Pause

96%

Cut–Cut–Cut

4%

Cut–Cut–Pause

96%

Cut–Cut–Cut

4%

$583k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Fed decision in April? card icon

Fed decision in April?

50+ bps decrease

5%

25 bps decrease

26%

50+ bps decrease

5%

25 bps decrease

26%

$566k Vol.

repeat-3monthly
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027? card icon

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 5.5%

1%

↑ 5.25%

2%

↑ 5.5%

1%

↑ 5.25%

2%

$262k Vol.

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar) card icon

Fed decisions (Dec-Mar)

Cut–Pause–Pause

69%

Cut–Pause–Cut

29%

Cut–Pause–Pause

69%

Cut–Pause–Cut

29%

$384k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…? card icon

Jerome Powell out of Fed Board by…?

May 30

68%

December 31

84%

May 30

68%

December 31

84%

$40k Vol.

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting? card icon

How many dissent at the next Fed meeting?

0

1%

1

40%

0

1%

1

40%

$12k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Fed Decision in June? card icon

Fed Decision in June?

50+ bps decrease

10%

25 bps decrease

44%

50+ bps decrease

10%

25 bps decrease

44%

$3k Vol.

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr) card icon

Fed decisions (Jan-Apr)

Pause–Pause–Pause

52%

Pause–Cut–Pause

24%

Pause–Pause–Pause

52%

Pause–Cut–Pause

24%

$7k Vol.

repeat-3daily
Fed rate hike in 2026? card icon

Fed rate hike in 2026?

13%

chance

$15k Vol.

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.3%

75%

4.4%

57%

4.3%

75%

4.4%

57%

$14k Vol.

repeat-3weekly
How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31? card icon

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go by March 31?

4.3%

52%

4.4%

13%

4.3%

52%

4.4%

13%

$12k Vol.

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027? card icon

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

14%

chance

$15k Vol.

repeat-3annual