No US state legislature has introduced, advanced, or scheduled a formal vote on any bill or resolution seeking secession from the United States, leaving the market's 99.6% trader consensus for "No" anchored in the absence of legislative action ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline. State sessions have instead prioritized elections, budgets, and routine policy matters, while longstanding constitutional barriers—including Supreme Court precedent on the permanence of the Union and congressional approval requirements under Article IV—discourage formal consideration. Sporadic polling shows limited public interest in independence concepts in states such as California and Texas, yet these views have produced no floor votes. With roughly two weeks remaining, any shift would require an unforeseen emergency session or procedural surprise, scenarios viewed as highly improbable by market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAny US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?
$42,817 Vol.
$42,817 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$42,817 Vol.
$42,817 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.No US state legislature has introduced, advanced, or scheduled a formal vote on any bill or resolution seeking secession from the United States, leaving the market's 99.6% trader consensus for "No" anchored in the absence of legislative action ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline. State sessions have instead prioritized elections, budgets, and routine policy matters, while longstanding constitutional barriers—including Supreme Court precedent on the permanence of the Union and congressional approval requirements under Article IV—discourage formal consideration. Sporadic polling shows limited public interest in independence concepts in states such as California and Texas, yet these views have produced no floor votes. With roughly two weeks remaining, any shift would require an unforeseen emergency session or procedural surprise, scenarios viewed as highly improbable by market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ET
Volume
$42,817End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.No US state legislature has introduced, advanced, or scheduled a formal vote on any bill or resolution seeking secession from the United States, leaving the market's 99.6% trader consensus for "No" anchored in the absence of legislative action ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline. State sessions have instead prioritized elections, budgets, and routine policy matters, while longstanding constitutional barriers—including Supreme Court precedent on the permanence of the Union and congressional approval requirements under Article IV—discourage formal consideration. Sporadic polling shows limited public interest in independence concepts in states such as California and Texas, yet these views have produced no floor votes. With roughly two weeks remaining, any shift would require an unforeseen emergency session or procedural surprise, scenarios viewed as highly improbable by market participants.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.
A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.
Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.
This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$42,817End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Oct 8, 2025, 3:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No US state legislature has introduced, advanced, or scheduled a formal vote on any bill or resolution seeking secession from the United States, leaving the market's 99.6% trader consensus for "No" anchored in the absence of legislative action ahead of the June 30, 2026 deadline. State sessions have instead prioritized elections, budgets, and routine policy matters, while longstanding constitutional barriers—including Supreme Court precedent on the permanence of the Union and congressional approval requirements under Article IV—discourage formal consideration. Sporadic polling shows limited public interest in independence concepts in states such as California and Texas, yet these views have produced no floor votes. With roughly two weeks remaining, any shift would require an unforeseen emergency session or procedural surprise, scenarios viewed as highly improbable by market participants.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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