California voters will decide on November 3 whether to approve a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, with proceeds directed mainly to healthcare. The measure qualified for the ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but Governor Gavin Newsom and leading gubernatorial candidates have opposed it, citing risks to the state’s budget and business climate. Opponents funded by prominent billionaires have placed two competing initiatives on the same ballot that include provisions to nullify the tax if they receive more votes. A September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed the wealth tax holding a narrow 52% lead, while the rival measures registered similar support amid heavy opposition spending. These dynamics, combined with expected advertising imbalances and residency-based tax design concerns, underpin trader expectations that the tax will not take effect.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated26% chance
$3,793,456 Vol.
$3,793,456 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
26% chance
$3,793,456 Vol.
$3,793,456 Vol.
Jun 25, 2026
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide on November 3 whether to approve a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, with proceeds directed mainly to healthcare. The measure qualified for the ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but Governor Gavin Newsom and leading gubernatorial candidates have opposed it, citing risks to the state’s budget and business climate. Opponents funded by prominent billionaires have placed two competing initiatives on the same ballot that include provisions to nullify the tax if they receive more votes. A September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed the wealth tax holding a narrow 52% lead, while the rival measures registered similar support amid heavy opposition spending. These dynamics, combined with expected advertising imbalances and residency-based tax design concerns, underpin trader expectations that the tax will not take effect.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ET
Volume
$3,793,456End Date
Jun 26, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.California voters will decide on November 3 whether to approve a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, with proceeds directed mainly to healthcare. The measure qualified for the ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but Governor Gavin Newsom and leading gubernatorial candidates have opposed it, citing risks to the state’s budget and business climate. Opponents funded by prominent billionaires have placed two competing initiatives on the same ballot that include provisions to nullify the tax if they receive more votes. A September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed the wealth tax holding a narrow 52% lead, while the rival measures registered similar support amid heavy opposition spending. These dynamics, combined with expected advertising imbalances and residency-based tax design concerns, underpin trader expectations that the tax will not take effect.
A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,793,456End Date
Jun 26, 2026Market Opened
Oct 24, 2025, 3:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...California voters will decide on November 3 whether to approve a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents with net worth above roughly $1 billion, with proceeds directed mainly to healthcare. The measure qualified for the ballot after a labor union gathered sufficient signatures, but Governor Gavin Newsom and leading gubernatorial candidates have opposed it, citing risks to the state’s budget and business climate. Opponents funded by prominent billionaires have placed two competing initiatives on the same ballot that include provisions to nullify the tax if they receive more votes. A September Public Policy Institute of California poll showed the wealth tax holding a narrow 52% lead, while the rival measures registered similar support amid heavy opposition spending. These dynamics, combined with expected advertising imbalances and residency-based tax design concerns, underpin trader expectations that the tax will not take effect.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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