Canada’s 2026 annual CPI inflation outlook remains centered on energy price volatility, with recent headline readings at 3.0% year-over-year in July and 2.8% in June driven by elevated gasoline costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. Core measures, including the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim metrics, have stayed near the 2% target, indicating limited pass-through to broader prices amid ongoing economic slack and easing shelter inflation. The BoC’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a 2.5% average for 2026, with further easing expected in the second half assuming oil prices follow futures curves and gasoline margins narrow. Market-implied odds across the 2.0–3.9% range reflect uncertainty over geopolitical risks, potential CAD depreciation, and US trade policy effects versus subdued labor costs and excess capacity. The next policy decision is scheduled for September 2.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedCanada Annual Inflation 2026
Canada Annual Inflation 2026
2.5–2.9% 32.2%
3.0-3.4% 16.1%
2.0–2.4% 15.4%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
$38,521 Vol.
$38,521 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
12%
2.0–2.4%
15%
2.5–2.9%
32%
3.0-3.4%
16%
3.5-3.9%
13%
4.0%+
5%
2.5–2.9% 32.2%
3.0-3.4% 16.1%
2.0–2.4% 15.4%
3.5-3.9% 13.1%
$38,521 Vol.
$38,521 Vol.
Jan 17, 2027
<1.0%
$1,137 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$5,268 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$3,350 Vol.
12%
2.0–2.4%
$1,204 Vol.
15%
2.5–2.9%
$9,798 Vol.
32%
3.0-3.4%
$13,770 Vol.
16%
3.5-3.9%
$3,511 Vol.
13%
4.0%+
$484 Vol.
5%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada’s 2026 annual CPI inflation outlook remains centered on energy price volatility, with recent headline readings at 3.0% year-over-year in July and 2.8% in June driven by elevated gasoline costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. Core measures, including the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim metrics, have stayed near the 2% target, indicating limited pass-through to broader prices amid ongoing economic slack and easing shelter inflation. The BoC’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a 2.5% average for 2026, with further easing expected in the second half assuming oil prices follow futures curves and gasoline margins narrow. Market-implied odds across the 2.0–3.9% range reflect uncertainty over geopolitical risks, potential CAD depreciation, and US trade policy effects versus subdued labor costs and excess capacity. The next policy decision is scheduled for September 2.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ET
Volume
$38,521End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665Canada’s 2026 annual CPI inflation outlook remains centered on energy price volatility, with recent headline readings at 3.0% year-over-year in July and 2.8% in June driven by elevated gasoline costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. Core measures, including the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim metrics, have stayed near the 2% target, indicating limited pass-through to broader prices amid ongoing economic slack and easing shelter inflation. The BoC’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a 2.5% average for 2026, with further easing expected in the second half assuming oil prices follow futures curves and gasoline margins narrow. Market-implied odds across the 2.0–3.9% range reflect uncertainty over geopolitical risks, potential CAD depreciation, and US trade policy effects versus subdued labor costs and excess capacity. The next policy decision is scheduled for September 2.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices over the 12-month period ending December 2026 in Canada, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by Statistics Canada.
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly Statistics Canada report.
The resolution source for this market will be the Statistics Canada Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start), currently scheduled to be released on January 18, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Once available, you can find this report by clicking on the "Major Economic Indicators" heading on the home page of https://www.statcan.gc.ca/en/start and selecting the “Consumer Price Index” report for the relevant month. The relevant figure can be found in “Table 1” under the "% change" column for the relevant month and year compared to the same month of the previous year.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Statistics Canada CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dai-quo/cal1-eng.htm?sk=3665
Volume
$38,521End Date
Jan 18, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:22 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Canada’s 2026 annual CPI inflation outlook remains centered on energy price volatility, with recent headline readings at 3.0% year-over-year in July and 2.8% in June driven by elevated gasoline costs tied to Middle East supply disruptions. Core measures, including the Bank of Canada’s preferred median and trim metrics, have stayed near the 2% target, indicating limited pass-through to broader prices amid ongoing economic slack and easing shelter inflation. The BoC’s July Monetary Policy Report projects a 2.5% average for 2026, with further easing expected in the second half assuming oil prices follow futures curves and gasoline margins narrow. Market-implied odds across the 2.0–3.9% range reflect uncertainty over geopolitical risks, potential CAD depreciation, and US trade policy effects versus subdued labor costs and excess capacity. The next policy decision is scheduled for September 2.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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