Éloïse Coulombe of the Parti conservateur du Québec leads the Charlesbourg race at 85% in trader consensus, reflecting recent polling averages and projections showing her party ahead in the open seat ahead of the October 5, 2026, general election. The riding’s incumbent CAQ MNA opted not to seek re-election, opening the contest to a field that includes Gabriel Coulombe of the Parti québécois at 13%, Marie-Josée Morency of the CAQ at 2.6%, and lower-probability candidates from Québec solidaire and the Liberals. Local factors such as candidate recruitment, youth-focused messaging from the PCQ contender, and broader provincial momentum for the Conservatives have shifted implied probabilities toward Éloïse Coulombe in the final week of campaigning. The wide spread of 50% placeholders for other named individuals underscores market uncertainty around minor-party or independent outcomes.