Recent polling aggregates show the CAQ under Christine Fréchette falling to 16-19% support in the final week before the October 5 election, down sharply from earlier in the campaign and trailing the leading Parti Québécois. This collapse, concentrated among francophone and senior voters, has produced seat projections clustered near zero to low single digits across models, reflecting the party's uniform regional support base and limited efficiency in converting votes into ridings. The spread of trader probabilities across 0-5+ seats captures residual uncertainty from late-campaign volatility, regional Conservative strength in Quebec City, and a handful of competitive ridings where the CAQ remains in contention. Scheduled advance voting and the absence of further major events before election day limit immediate catalysts for further separation in the consensus.