Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential contest remains closely contested because leftist candidate Iván Cepeda holds a consistent but sub-50 percent polling lead while conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Recent polls place Cepeda between 35 and 44 percent, de la Espriella near 21–24 percent, and Valencia between 13 and 25 percent, producing projected margins for Cepeda in the 10–15 point range. De la Espriella's visibility rose after controversial public remarks that drew both criticism and media attention, yet the division within right-leaning voters continues to limit any single challenger's ability to close the gap. With roughly two weeks until voting, further consolidation among conservative factions or shifts among undecided voters could narrow or widen the expected first-round spread before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedColombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Colombia Election 1st Round: Margin of Victory?
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.2%
$15,004 Vol.
$15,004 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
13%
de la Espriella Win
15%
Valencia Win
<1%
Other
<1%
Cepeda Castro 10-15% 38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10% 32%
de la Espriella Win 15%
Cepeda Castro 0-5% 13.2%
$15,004 Vol.
$15,004 Vol.
May 31, 2026
Cepeda Castro 20%+
$1,822 Vol.
4%
Cepeda Castro 15-20%
$1,213 Vol.
8%
Cepeda Castro 10-15%
$1,132 Vol.
38%
Cepeda Castro 5-10%
$1,123 Vol.
32%
Cepeda Castro 0-5%
$1,259 Vol.
13%
de la Espriella Win
$4,118 Vol.
15%
Valencia Win
$2,270 Vol.
<1%
Other
$2,066 Vol.
<1%
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential contest remains closely contested because leftist candidate Iván Cepeda holds a consistent but sub-50 percent polling lead while conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Recent polls place Cepeda between 35 and 44 percent, de la Espriella near 21–24 percent, and Valencia between 13 and 25 percent, producing projected margins for Cepeda in the 10–15 point range. De la Espriella's visibility rose after controversial public remarks that drew both criticism and media attention, yet the division within right-leaning voters continues to limit any single challenger's ability to close the gap. With roughly two weeks until voting, further consolidation among conservative factions or shifts among undecided voters could narrow or widen the expected first-round spread before ballots are cast.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Volume
$15,004End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential contest remains closely contested because leftist candidate Iván Cepeda holds a consistent but sub-50 percent polling lead while conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Recent polls place Cepeda between 35 and 44 percent, de la Espriella near 21–24 percent, and Valencia between 13 and 25 percent, producing projected margins for Cepeda in the 10–15 point range. De la Espriella's visibility rose after controversial public remarks that drew both criticism and media attention, yet the division within right-leaning voters continues to limit any single challenger's ability to close the gap. With roughly two weeks until voting, further consolidation among conservative factions or shifts among undecided voters could narrow or widen the expected first-round spread before ballots are cast.
Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, with a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely the official results as reported by the Colombian government, including Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$15,004End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Colombia's May 31 first-round presidential contest remains closely contested because leftist candidate Iván Cepeda holds a consistent but sub-50 percent polling lead while conservative support splits between Abelardo de la Espriella and Paloma Valencia. Recent polls place Cepeda between 35 and 44 percent, de la Espriella near 21–24 percent, and Valencia between 13 and 25 percent, producing projected margins for Cepeda in the 10–15 point range. De la Espriella's visibility rose after controversial public remarks that drew both criticism and media attention, yet the division within right-leaning voters continues to limit any single challenger's ability to close the gap. With roughly two weeks until voting, further consolidation among conservative factions or shifts among undecided voters could narrow or widen the expected first-round spread before ballots are cast.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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