Monique Taylor secured a commanding lead in trader assessments for second place in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election due to her established profile as a former NDP MPP for the neighboring Hamilton Mountain riding and the party's strong local organization. The September 3 vote followed Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with Taylor nominated in late July and backed by unions such as the United Steelworkers. Official results showed her capturing 32.9 percent, well ahead of the Liberal candidate at 23.5 percent and minor-party contenders below 3 percent, reflecting a 15-point NDP swing in a riding the PCs had held since 2022. Pre-election polling indicated a tight PC-Liberal contest, yet Taylor’s name recognition and consolidation of non-Conservative support produced the observed outcome. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected endorsements could have narrowed the margin, though none materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMonique Taylor 96%
Heino Doessing 9%
Jeff Beattie <1%
Pascale Marchand <1%
$1,026 Vol.
$1,026 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Jeff Beattie
No
Heino Doessing
No
Monique Taylor
Yes
Pascale Marchand
No
Heather Curnew
No
Wieslawa Derlatka
No
Monique Taylor 96%
Heino Doessing 9%
Jeff Beattie <1%
Pascale Marchand <1%
$1,026 Vol.
$1,026 Vol.
Sep 3, 2026
Jeff Beattie
$308 Vol.
No
Heino Doessing
$17 Vol.
No
Monique Taylor
$218 Vol.
Yes
Pascale Marchand
$161 Vol.
No
Heather Curnew
$161 Vol.
No
Wieslawa Derlatka
$161 Vol.
No
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Monique Taylor secured a commanding lead in trader assessments for second place in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election due to her established profile as a former NDP MPP for the neighboring Hamilton Mountain riding and the party's strong local organization. The September 3 vote followed Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with Taylor nominated in late July and backed by unions such as the United Steelworkers. Official results showed her capturing 32.9 percent, well ahead of the Liberal candidate at 23.5 percent and minor-party contenders below 3 percent, reflecting a 15-point NDP swing in a riding the PCs had held since 2022. Pre-election polling indicated a tight PC-Liberal contest, yet Taylor’s name recognition and consolidation of non-Conservative support produced the observed outcome. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected endorsements could have narrowed the margin, though none materialized.
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Volume
$1,026End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.elections.on.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).Monique Taylor secured a commanding lead in trader assessments for second place in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election due to her established profile as a former NDP MPP for the neighboring Hamilton Mountain riding and the party's strong local organization. The September 3 vote followed Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with Taylor nominated in late July and backed by unions such as the United Steelworkers. Official results showed her capturing 32.9 percent, well ahead of the Liberal candidate at 23.5 percent and minor-party contenders below 3 percent, reflecting a 15-point NDP swing in a riding the PCs had held since 2022. Pre-election polling indicated a tight PC-Liberal contest, yet Taylor’s name recognition and consolidation of non-Conservative support produced the observed outcome. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected endorsements could have narrowed the margin, though none materialized.
A by-election for the Ontario provincial electoral district of Hamilton East—Stoney Creek is currently scheduled to be held on September 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the second-most valid votes in the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by the number of valid votes received in the specified election. If two or more candidates are tied on valid votes, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates' listed names. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Ontario (https://www.elections.on.ca/).
Volume
$1,026End Date
Sep 3, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.elections.on.ca/Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Monique Taylor secured a commanding lead in trader assessments for second place in the Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election due to her established profile as a former NDP MPP for the neighboring Hamilton Mountain riding and the party's strong local organization. The September 3 vote followed Progressive Conservative MPP Neil Lumsden’s retirement, with Taylor nominated in late July and backed by unions such as the United Steelworkers. Official results showed her capturing 32.9 percent, well ahead of the Liberal candidate at 23.5 percent and minor-party contenders below 3 percent, reflecting a 15-point NDP swing in a riding the PCs had held since 2022. Pre-election polling indicated a tight PC-Liberal contest, yet Taylor’s name recognition and consolidation of non-Conservative support produced the observed outcome. Late shifts in turnout or unexpected endorsements could have narrowed the margin, though none materialized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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