Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on May 16?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on May 16?
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$37,976 Vol.
$37,976 Vol.
May 16, 2026
16°C or below
No
17°C
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
$37,976 Vol.
$37,976 Vol.
May 16, 2026
16°C or below
$1,065 Vol.
No
17°C
$1,324 Vol.
No
18°C
$4,101 Vol.
No
19°C
$5,686 Vol.
No
20°C
$2,698 Vol.
No
21°C
$9,532 Vol.
No
22°C
$4,966 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$3,297 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,323 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,489 Vol.
No
26°C or higher
$1,495 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 14, 2026, 12:45 AM ET
Volume
$37,976End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Cape Town International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$37,976End Date
May 16, 2026Market Opened
May 14, 2026, 12:45 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 22°C as the near-certain outcome for Cape Town’s highest temperature on May 16 because official observations from Cape Town International Airport, reported through South African Weather Service networks, recorded a daily maximum of exactly 22°C under stable high-pressure conditions with light southeast winds and limited afternoon cloud cover. This aligns with typical early-autumn climatology for the region, where marine-layer influence and a developing sea breeze often cap daytime peaks near 20–23°C. The market’s 100% implied probability for the 22°C bracket reflects this verified measurement rather than forecast uncertainty. Only an unexpected post-event data revision from the primary observing station or a redefinition of the resolution criteria could alter the result.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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