Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration highlight persistent western Pacific subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, sustaining warm, humid air masses and supporting a daytime maximum near 37°C in Chengdu on August 15. This aligns with August climatology, where regional highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid ongoing warming trends that have elevated extreme values. Ensemble models show tight consensus with minimal deviation expected, reinforcing the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 37°C. Thunderstorm development or increased cloud cover could introduce localized cooling and cap readings below the threshold, while any overnight forecast revisions from official agencies remain the key near-term variable for traders monitoring resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 15?
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$60,162 Vol.
$60,162 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C
No
35°C
No
36°C
No
37°C
Yes
38°C
No
39°C or higher
No
37°C 100.0%
29°C or below <1%
30°C <1%
31°C <1%
$60,162 Vol.
$60,162 Vol.
Aug 15, 2026
29°C or below
$1,547 Vol.
No
30°C
$785 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,650 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,116 Vol.
No
33°C
$1,757 Vol.
No
34°C
$3,897 Vol.
No
35°C
$6,337 Vol.
No
36°C
$9,077 Vol.
No
37°C
$13,544 Vol.
Yes
38°C
$12,164 Vol.
No
39°C or higher
$8,288 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration highlight persistent western Pacific subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, sustaining warm, humid air masses and supporting a daytime maximum near 37°C in Chengdu on August 15. This aligns with August climatology, where regional highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid ongoing warming trends that have elevated extreme values. Ensemble models show tight consensus with minimal deviation expected, reinforcing the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 37°C. Thunderstorm development or increased cloud cover could introduce localized cooling and cap readings below the threshold, while any overnight forecast revisions from official agencies remain the key near-term variable for traders monitoring resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$60,162End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration highlight persistent western Pacific subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, sustaining warm, humid air masses and supporting a daytime maximum near 37°C in Chengdu on August 15. This aligns with August climatology, where regional highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid ongoing warming trends that have elevated extreme values. Ensemble models show tight consensus with minimal deviation expected, reinforcing the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 37°C. Thunderstorm development or increased cloud cover could introduce localized cooling and cap readings below the threshold, while any overnight forecast revisions from official agencies remain the key near-term variable for traders monitoring resolution criteria.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$60,162End Date
Aug 15, 2026Market Opened
Aug 13, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration highlight persistent western Pacific subtropical high pressure over the Sichuan Basin, sustaining warm, humid air masses and supporting a daytime maximum near 37°C in Chengdu on August 15. This aligns with August climatology, where regional highs frequently reach 34–37°C amid ongoing warming trends that have elevated extreme values. Ensemble models show tight consensus with minimal deviation expected, reinforcing the market's near-certain implied probability for exactly 37°C. Thunderstorm development or increased cloud cover could introduce localized cooling and cap readings below the threshold, while any overnight forecast revisions from official agencies remain the key near-term variable for traders monitoring resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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