Current meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on August 13, 2026, from agencies including the Met Office indicate a maximum temperature of 27°C, driven by typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and moderating sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus that limit peak heating. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing average highs near 28°C, and recent model consensus reinforces the outcome with minimal divergence. The 100% market-implied probability on 27°C reflects trader consensus on verified observational thresholds and short-range numerical weather prediction runs ahead of final station data. Scenarios that could shift resolution include unexpected convective development raising readings above the threshold or post-event measurement adjustments from official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 13?
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$38,252 Vol.
$38,252 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C
Yes
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C or higher
No
27°C 100.0%
23°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
25°C <1%
$38,252 Vol.
$38,252 Vol.
Aug 13, 2026
23°C or below
$447 Vol.
No
24°C
$667 Vol.
No
25°C
$1,147 Vol.
No
26°C
$3,556 Vol.
No
27°C
$14,284 Vol.
Yes
28°C
$9,373 Vol.
No
29°C
$3,501 Vol.
No
30°C
$2,932 Vol.
No
31°C
$805 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,274 Vol.
No
33°C or higher
$267 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on August 13, 2026, from agencies including the Met Office indicate a maximum temperature of 27°C, driven by typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and moderating sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus that limit peak heating. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing average highs near 28°C, and recent model consensus reinforces the outcome with minimal divergence. The 100% market-implied probability on 27°C reflects trader consensus on verified observational thresholds and short-range numerical weather prediction runs ahead of final station data. Scenarios that could shift resolution include unexpected convective development raising readings above the threshold or post-event measurement adjustments from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$38,252End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on August 13, 2026, from agencies including the Met Office indicate a maximum temperature of 27°C, driven by typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and moderating sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus that limit peak heating. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing average highs near 28°C, and recent model consensus reinforces the outcome with minimal divergence. The 100% market-implied probability on 27°C reflects trader consensus on verified observational thresholds and short-range numerical weather prediction runs ahead of final station data. Scenarios that could shift resolution include unexpected convective development raising readings above the threshold or post-event measurement adjustments from official stations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 13 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$38,252End Date
Aug 13, 2026Market Opened
Aug 11, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Current meteorological forecasts for Istanbul on August 13, 2026, from agencies including the Met Office indicate a maximum temperature of 27°C, driven by typical late-summer atmospheric conditions with moderate northerly winds, partial cloud cover, and moderating sea-breeze effects from the Bosphorus that limit peak heating. This aligns with long-term August climatology showing average highs near 28°C, and recent model consensus reinforces the outcome with minimal divergence. The 100% market-implied probability on 27°C reflects trader consensus on verified observational thresholds and short-range numerical weather prediction runs ahead of final station data. Scenarios that could shift resolution include unexpected convective development raising readings above the threshold or post-event measurement adjustments from official stations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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