Mid-August climatology in Jinan places typical daily maximum temperatures at 30–32 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon and subtropical high, reinforced by strong solar insolation and urban heat-island effects across the North China Plain. Current forecasts from regional meteorological agencies and model consensus project highs of 31–33 °C for 16 August 2026, consistent with ongoing heat warnings and observed regional conditions. This robust alignment explains the market’s 100 % implied probability for 26 °C or higher. Only an atypical synoptic shift—such as rapid cold-air advection or persistent heavy cloud cover and rainfall—could realistically suppress the maximum below that threshold, an outcome unsupported by present guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on August 16?
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 16?
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
100%
26°C or higher 100.0%
16°C or below <1%
17°C <1%
18°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
16°C or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$100 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$216 Vol.
<1%
26°C or higher
$472 Vol.
100%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mid-August climatology in Jinan places typical daily maximum temperatures at 30–32 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon and subtropical high, reinforced by strong solar insolation and urban heat-island effects across the North China Plain. Current forecasts from regional meteorological agencies and model consensus project highs of 31–33 °C for 16 August 2026, consistent with ongoing heat warnings and observed regional conditions. This robust alignment explains the market’s 100 % implied probability for 26 °C or higher. Only an atypical synoptic shift—such as rapid cold-air advection or persistent heavy cloud cover and rainfall—could realistically suppress the maximum below that threshold, an outcome unsupported by present guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$948End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Mid-August climatology in Jinan places typical daily maximum temperatures at 30–32 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon and subtropical high, reinforced by strong solar insolation and urban heat-island effects across the North China Plain. Current forecasts from regional meteorological agencies and model consensus project highs of 31–33 °C for 16 August 2026, consistent with ongoing heat warnings and observed regional conditions. This robust alignment explains the market’s 100 % implied probability for 26 °C or higher. Only an atypical synoptic shift—such as rapid cold-air advection or persistent heavy cloud cover and rainfall—could realistically suppress the maximum below that threshold, an outcome unsupported by present guidance.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$948End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Mid-August climatology in Jinan places typical daily maximum temperatures at 30–32 °C under the influence of the East Asian summer monsoon and subtropical high, reinforced by strong solar insolation and urban heat-island effects across the North China Plain. Current forecasts from regional meteorological agencies and model consensus project highs of 31–33 °C for 16 August 2026, consistent with ongoing heat warnings and observed regional conditions. This robust alignment explains the market’s 100 % implied probability for 26 °C or higher. Only an atypical synoptic shift—such as rapid cold-air advection or persistent heavy cloud cover and rainfall—could realistically suppress the maximum below that threshold, an outcome unsupported by present guidance.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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