Strong model consensus from sources including AccuWeather, Timeanddate, and the Met Office projects Jinan’s maximum temperature on August 17 to reach 32–34°C, driven by persistent summer warmth and typical subtropical high-pressure patterns over Shandong. Mid-August climatology supports daily highs near 31°C, with current conditions showing no major cooling influences such as widespread cloud cover or frontal passages. This scientific evidence underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted shift like increased precipitation or stronger northerly flow on the day itself, though short-range models show low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Jinan on August 17?
Highest temperature in Jinan on August 17?
26°C or higher 99.4%
20°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C or higher
99%
26°C or higher 99.4%
20°C <1%
25°C <1%
24°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Aug 17, 2026
16°C or below
$525 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$525 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$486 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$546 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$265 Vol.
1%
21°C
$110 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$115 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$165 Vol.
1%
25°C
$186 Vol.
1%
26°C or higher
$838 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from sources including AccuWeather, Timeanddate, and the Met Office projects Jinan’s maximum temperature on August 17 to reach 32–34°C, driven by persistent summer warmth and typical subtropical high-pressure patterns over Shandong. Mid-August climatology supports daily highs near 31°C, with current conditions showing no major cooling influences such as widespread cloud cover or frontal passages. This scientific evidence underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted shift like increased precipitation or stronger northerly flow on the day itself, though short-range models show low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ET
Volume
$3,877End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong model consensus from sources including AccuWeather, Timeanddate, and the Met Office projects Jinan’s maximum temperature on August 17 to reach 32–34°C, driven by persistent summer warmth and typical subtropical high-pressure patterns over Shandong. Mid-August climatology supports daily highs near 31°C, with current conditions showing no major cooling influences such as widespread cloud cover or frontal passages. This scientific evidence underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted shift like increased precipitation or stronger northerly flow on the day itself, though short-range models show low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Jinan Yaoqiang International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,877End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 16, 2026, 12:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/jinan/ZSJNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong model consensus from sources including AccuWeather, Timeanddate, and the Met Office projects Jinan’s maximum temperature on August 17 to reach 32–34°C, driven by persistent summer warmth and typical subtropical high-pressure patterns over Shandong. Mid-August climatology supports daily highs near 31°C, with current conditions showing no major cooling influences such as widespread cloud cover or frontal passages. This scientific evidence underpins the 98.6% market-implied probability for 26°C or higher. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted shift like increased precipitation or stronger northerly flow on the day itself, though short-range models show low likelihood of such changes before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions