**Trader consensus centers on 32–34°C as the most likely range for Manila’s peak temperature on June 15, driven by the strengthening southwest monsoon.** PAGASA’s official outlook shows a 34°C high with 40% rain chance under partly cloudy skies, while long-term June averages hover near 32°C. Persistent monsoon flow brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and higher humidity that limits solar heating and caps afternoon temperatures. Recent model runs and regional analyses indicate no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 35°C or above, keeping those outcomes below 5% implied probability. Historical early-wet-season patterns reinforce this moderation, with traders weighting the monsoon’s cooling effect alongside the narrow window for any brief sunny breaks that could reach 34°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日6月15日のマニラの最高気温は?
33°C 46%
32℃ 24%
34℃ 22%
35℃ 4.5%
28°C以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32℃
24%
33°C
46%
34℃
22%
35℃
5%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38℃以上
<1%
33°C 46%
32℃ 24%
34℃ 22%
35℃ 4.5%
28°C以下
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
1%
31°C
2%
32℃
24%
33°C
46%
34℃
22%
35℃
5%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38℃以上
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
マーケット開始日: Jun 13, 2026, 12:11 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
**Trader consensus centers on 32–34°C as the most likely range for Manila’s peak temperature on June 15, driven by the strengthening southwest monsoon.** PAGASA’s official outlook shows a 34°C high with 40% rain chance under partly cloudy skies, while long-term June averages hover near 32°C. Persistent monsoon flow brings increased cloud cover, scattered showers, and higher humidity that limits solar heating and caps afternoon temperatures. Recent model runs and regional analyses indicate no strong high-pressure ridge or clear skies that would push readings to 35°C or above, keeping those outcomes below 5% implied probability. Historical early-wet-season patterns reinforce this moderation, with traders weighting the monsoon’s cooling effect alongside the narrow window for any brief sunny breaks that could reach 34°C.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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