Current forecasts from multiple models place Mexico City’s maximum temperature near 26°C on August 16, aligning with the market’s leading 58% implied probability for that outcome. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps daytime highs well below lowland averages, while the ongoing rainy season brings frequent afternoon cloud cover and showers that limit solar heating and introduce variability. Recent runs from agencies such as the Met Office and international ensembles converge on 25–27°C maxima, with 26°C as the modal value; lighter probabilities for 25°C or 27°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation intensity. Historical August maxima cluster around 24–25°C, so today’s slightly warmer guidance supports the observed market distribution. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later in the day remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Mexico City on August 16?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on August 16?
26°C 57%
27°C 24%
25°C 18%
24°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
3%
25°C
18%
26°C
57%
27°C
24%
28°C
2%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C or higher
<1%
26°C 57%
27°C 24%
25°C 18%
24°C 3%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
21°C or below
$20 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$20 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$583 Vol.
1%
24°C
$294 Vol.
3%
25°C
$1,040 Vol.
18%
26°C
$658 Vol.
57%
27°C
$497 Vol.
24%
28°C
$294 Vol.
2%
29°C
$115 Vol.
1%
30°C
$225 Vol.
1%
31°C or higher
$365 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Mexico City’s maximum temperature near 26°C on August 16, aligning with the market’s leading 58% implied probability for that outcome. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps daytime highs well below lowland averages, while the ongoing rainy season brings frequent afternoon cloud cover and showers that limit solar heating and introduce variability. Recent runs from agencies such as the Met Office and international ensembles converge on 25–27°C maxima, with 26°C as the modal value; lighter probabilities for 25°C or 27°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation intensity. Historical August maxima cluster around 24–25°C, so today’s slightly warmer guidance supports the observed market distribution. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later in the day remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ET
Volume
$4,111End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from multiple models place Mexico City’s maximum temperature near 26°C on August 16, aligning with the market’s leading 58% implied probability for that outcome. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps daytime highs well below lowland averages, while the ongoing rainy season brings frequent afternoon cloud cover and showers that limit solar heating and introduce variability. Recent runs from agencies such as the Met Office and international ensembles converge on 25–27°C maxima, with 26°C as the modal value; lighter probabilities for 25°C or 27°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation intensity. Historical August maxima cluster around 24–25°C, so today’s slightly warmer guidance supports the observed market distribution. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later in the day remain the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,111End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 4:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from multiple models place Mexico City’s maximum temperature near 26°C on August 16, aligning with the market’s leading 58% implied probability for that outcome. The city’s high elevation of roughly 2,240 meters keeps daytime highs well below lowland averages, while the ongoing rainy season brings frequent afternoon cloud cover and showers that limit solar heating and introduce variability. Recent runs from agencies such as the Met Office and international ensembles converge on 25–27°C maxima, with 26°C as the modal value; lighter probabilities for 25°C or 27°C reflect remaining uncertainty in exact cloud timing and precipitation intensity. Historical August maxima cluster around 24–25°C, so today’s slightly warmer guidance supports the observed market distribution. Updated model guidance and official Servicio Meteorológico Nacional observations later in the day remain the key near-term catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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