Recent forecast runs from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 6 maximum will likely peak near 30°C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and potential afternoon convection. Trader consensus clustering on 29–30°C stems from observed warming trends over the prior 48 hours, southerly flow advecting warmer continental air, and surface energy budgets under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 23–24°C, underscoring the current positive anomaly driven by persistent high pressure. Resolution hinges on official Roshydromet station readings at 2 m height, where small timing shifts in peak heating or localized showers could differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes. Updated model guidance later today offers the next key data point for refining probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on August 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on August 6?
29°C 41%
30°C 34%
28°C 15%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
2%
27°C
4%
28°C
15%
29°C
41%
30°C
34%
31°C
11%
32°C
2%
33°C or higher
1%
29°C 41%
30°C 34%
28°C 15%
31°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 6, 2026
23°C or below
$96 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$537 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$365 Vol.
1%
26°C
$220 Vol.
2%
27°C
$223 Vol.
4%
28°C
$125 Vol.
15%
29°C
$173 Vol.
41%
30°C
$329 Vol.
34%
31°C
$789 Vol.
11%
32°C
$133 Vol.
2%
33°C or higher
$81 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 6 maximum will likely peak near 30°C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and potential afternoon convection. Trader consensus clustering on 29–30°C stems from observed warming trends over the prior 48 hours, southerly flow advecting warmer continental air, and surface energy budgets under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 23–24°C, underscoring the current positive anomaly driven by persistent high pressure. Resolution hinges on official Roshydromet station readings at 2 m height, where small timing shifts in peak heating or localized showers could differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes. Updated model guidance later today offers the next key data point for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$3,071End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast runs from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 6 maximum will likely peak near 30°C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and potential afternoon convection. Trader consensus clustering on 29–30°C stems from observed warming trends over the prior 48 hours, southerly flow advecting warmer continental air, and surface energy budgets under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 23–24°C, underscoring the current positive anomaly driven by persistent high pressure. Resolution hinges on official Roshydromet station readings at 2 m height, where small timing shifts in peak heating or localized showers could differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes. Updated model guidance later today offers the next key data point for refining probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,071End Date
Aug 6, 2026Market Opened
Aug 4, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast runs from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate Moscow's August 6 maximum will likely peak near 30°C, with ensemble spreads reflecting modest uncertainty from variable cloud cover, boundary-layer mixing, and potential afternoon convection. Trader consensus clustering on 29–30°C stems from observed warming trends over the prior 48 hours, southerly flow advecting warmer continental air, and surface energy budgets under mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions. Historical August climatology for the region centers near 23–24°C, underscoring the current positive anomaly driven by persistent high pressure. Resolution hinges on official Roshydromet station readings at 2 m height, where small timing shifts in peak heating or localized showers could differentiate the closely matched leading outcomes. Updated model guidance later today offers the next key data point for refining probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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