Official observations from National Weather Service stations including LaGuardia Airport recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F in New York City on August 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied odds for that bracket. This outcome reflects typical late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, with daytime heating moderated by moderate humidity and light winds rather than extreme heat advection. Historical August averages near 83°F at Central Park provide climatological context, and the tight consensus stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. Only a rare station malfunction or post-resolution data revision could alter the result, scenarios traders view as negligible given multiple redundant reporting sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on August 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on August 4?
84-85°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$66,216 Vol.
$66,216 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
73°F or below
No
74-75°F
No
76-77°F
No
78-79°F
No
80-81°F
No
82-83°F
No
84-85°F
Yes
86-87°F
No
88-89°F
No
90-91°F
No
92°F or higher
No
84-85°F 100.0%
73°F or below <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$66,216 Vol.
$66,216 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
73°F or below
$488 Vol.
No
74-75°F
$513 Vol.
No
76-77°F
$841 Vol.
No
78-79°F
$7,869 Vol.
No
80-81°F
$13,659 Vol.
No
82-83°F
$13,515 Vol.
No
84-85°F
$12,654 Vol.
Yes
86-87°F
$7,478 Vol.
No
88-89°F
$4,974 Vol.
No
90-91°F
$3,406 Vol.
No
92°F or higher
$819 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from National Weather Service stations including LaGuardia Airport recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F in New York City on August 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied odds for that bracket. This outcome reflects typical late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, with daytime heating moderated by moderate humidity and light winds rather than extreme heat advection. Historical August averages near 83°F at Central Park provide climatological context, and the tight consensus stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. Only a rare station malfunction or post-resolution data revision could alter the result, scenarios traders view as negligible given multiple redundant reporting sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ET
Volume
$66,216End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official observations from National Weather Service stations including LaGuardia Airport recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F in New York City on August 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied odds for that bracket. This outcome reflects typical late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, with daytime heating moderated by moderate humidity and light winds rather than extreme heat advection. Historical August averages near 83°F at Central Park provide climatological context, and the tight consensus stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. Only a rare station malfunction or post-resolution data revision could alter the result, scenarios traders view as negligible given multiple redundant reporting sites.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$66,216End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:03 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official observations from National Weather Service stations including LaGuardia Airport recorded a daily maximum of 84–85°F in New York City on August 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 100% market-implied odds for that bracket. This outcome reflects typical late-summer conditions under a stable high-pressure ridge, with daytime heating moderated by moderate humidity and light winds rather than extreme heat advection. Historical August averages near 83°F at Central Park provide climatological context, and the tight consensus stems from verified post-event data rather than forecasts. Only a rare station malfunction or post-resolution data revision could alter the result, scenarios traders view as negligible given multiple redundant reporting sites.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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