Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, reinforced by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures, as the key driver pushing market-implied odds for a Seoul high of 25 °C or above to 79.5 %. Ensemble guidance from global models shows afternoon maxima likely settling in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, consistent with mid-May climatology yet elevated by these persistent synoptic patterns. With resolution tomorrow, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in steering flow that could cap the peak just below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
Highest temperature in Seoul on May 18?
25°C or higher 81%
24°C 17%
23°C 3.5%
18°C <1%
NEW
$71,332 Vol.
NEW
$71,332 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
17%
25°C or higher
81%
25°C or higher 81%
24°C 17%
23°C 3.5%
18°C <1%
NEW
$71,332 Vol.
NEW
$71,332 Vol.
May 18, 2026
15°C or below
$12,409 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$5,911 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$5,706 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,778 Vol.
1%
19°C
$4,450 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$3,425 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$8,553 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$7,068 Vol.
1%
23°C
$6,290 Vol.
3%
24°C
$3,545 Vol.
17%
25°C or higher
$10,197 Vol.
81%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, reinforced by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures, as the key driver pushing market-implied odds for a Seoul high of 25 °C or above to 79.5 %. Ensemble guidance from global models shows afternoon maxima likely settling in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, consistent with mid-May climatology yet elevated by these persistent synoptic patterns. With resolution tomorrow, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in steering flow that could cap the peak just below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$71,332End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, reinforced by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures, as the key driver pushing market-implied odds for a Seoul high of 25 °C or above to 79.5 %. Ensemble guidance from global models shows afternoon maxima likely settling in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, consistent with mid-May climatology yet elevated by these persistent synoptic patterns. With resolution tomorrow, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in steering flow that could cap the peak just below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$71,332End Date
May 18, 2026Market Opened
May 16, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIRecent forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration highlight a southerly flow of warmer, moist air across the Korean Peninsula, reinforced by above-average Yellow Sea sea-surface temperatures, as the key driver pushing market-implied odds for a Seoul high of 25 °C or above to 79.5 %. Ensemble guidance from global models shows afternoon maxima likely settling in the mid-to-upper 20s Celsius under partly cloudy skies, consistent with mid-May climatology yet elevated by these persistent synoptic patterns. With resolution tomorrow, traders are monitoring the final model runs and any last-minute shifts in steering flow that could cap the peak just below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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