Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a daily maximum near 26°C in Warsaw, supported by scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection beneath stable high pressure. This meteorological setup limits daytime heating and aligns with observed trends, producing the market's strong implied probability for 26°C. Historical August baselines in the region average highs around 23–25°C, providing context for the modest warmth. Shifts in cloud thickness, stronger southerly flow, or enhanced solar radiation could still push readings to 27°C or higher before the day ends, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 14?
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$34,462 Vol.
$34,462 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
No
21°C
No
22°C
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
20°C or below <1%
21°C <1%
22°C <1%
$34,462 Vol.
$34,462 Vol.
Aug 14, 2026
20°C or below
$2,297 Vol.
No
21°C
$1,937 Vol.
No
22°C
$831 Vol.
No
23°C
$1,925 Vol.
No
24°C
$2,597 Vol.
No
25°C
$6,516 Vol.
No
26°C
$7,229 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$4,542 Vol.
No
28°C
$3,820 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,235 Vol.
No
30°C or higher
$533 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a daily maximum near 26°C in Warsaw, supported by scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection beneath stable high pressure. This meteorological setup limits daytime heating and aligns with observed trends, producing the market's strong implied probability for 26°C. Historical August baselines in the region average highs around 23–25°C, providing context for the modest warmth. Shifts in cloud thickness, stronger southerly flow, or enhanced solar radiation could still push readings to 27°C or higher before the day ends, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest model consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$34,462End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a daily maximum near 26°C in Warsaw, supported by scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection beneath stable high pressure. This meteorological setup limits daytime heating and aligns with observed trends, producing the market's strong implied probability for 26°C. Historical August baselines in the region average highs around 23–25°C, providing context for the modest warmth. Shifts in cloud thickness, stronger southerly flow, or enhanced solar radiation could still push readings to 27°C or higher before the day ends, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest model consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34,462End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models converge on a daily maximum near 26°C in Warsaw, supported by scattered cloud cover, light southeasterly winds, and modest warm-air advection beneath stable high pressure. This meteorological setup limits daytime heating and aligns with observed trends, producing the market's strong implied probability for 26°C. Historical August baselines in the region average highs around 23–25°C, providing context for the modest warmth. Shifts in cloud thickness, stronger southerly flow, or enhanced solar radiation could still push readings to 27°C or higher before the day ends, though such changes appear unlikely based on the latest model consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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