**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 5 or 6 additional cabinet-level departures by year-end because the second Trump administration has already recorded several high-profile exits in 2026, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and DNI Tulsi Gabbard.** Broader data show elevated turnover among Senate-confirmed officials and non-confirmed appointees compared with prior administrations, driven by performance disputes, personal factors, agency-specific pressures in immigration and justice portfolios, and the typical mid-presidency attrition pattern. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether this pace will moderate or continue through the final quarter, with traders weighing institutional continuity against ongoing personnel churn. Upcoming Senate confirmations, agency leadership reviews, or major policy milestones could shift probabilities by altering incentives for further exits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
How many more people leave the Trump cabinet this year?
5 41.8%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
3%
1
21%
2
20%
3
13%
4
22%
5
42%
6
39%
7+
13%
5 41.8%
1 28%
4 21.5%
2 20.5%
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
0
$5,052 Vol.
3%
1
$610 Vol.
21%
2
$425 Vol.
20%
3
$261 Vol.
13%
4
$321 Vol.
22%
5
$358 Vol.
42%
6
$476 Vol.
39%
7+
$2,058 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 5 or 6 additional cabinet-level departures by year-end because the second Trump administration has already recorded several high-profile exits in 2026, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and DNI Tulsi Gabbard.**
Broader data show elevated turnover among Senate-confirmed officials and non-confirmed appointees compared with prior administrations, driven by performance disputes, personal factors, agency-specific pressures in immigration and justice portfolios, and the typical mid-presidency attrition pattern. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether this pace will moderate or continue through the final quarter, with traders weighing institutional continuity against ongoing personnel churn.
Upcoming Senate confirmations, agency leadership reviews, or major policy milestones could shift probabilities by altering incentives for further exits.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Market Opened: Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Volume
$9,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 5 or 6 additional cabinet-level departures by year-end because the second Trump administration has already recorded several high-profile exits in 2026, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and DNI Tulsi Gabbard.**
Broader data show elevated turnover among Senate-confirmed officials and non-confirmed appointees compared with prior administrations, driven by performance disputes, personal factors, agency-specific pressures in immigration and justice portfolios, and the typical mid-presidency attrition pattern. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether this pace will moderate or continue through the final quarter, with traders weighing institutional continuity against ongoing personnel churn.
Upcoming Senate confirmations, agency leadership reviews, or major policy milestones could shift probabilities by altering incentives for further exits.
This market will resolve according to the number of people that leave the Trump Cabinet, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will count as an instance of someone leaving, regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If an individual who is not a cabinet member at the time of market creation assumes a listed cabinet position, their resignation/removal will subsequently be considered. However, individuals who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Note: Cabinet members who left the cabinet before this market’s creation will not be considered for this market’s resolution.
Volume
$9,561End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus clusters tightly around 5 or 6 additional cabinet-level departures by year-end because the second Trump administration has already recorded several high-profile exits in 2026, including the firings of DHS Secretary Kristi Noem and Attorney General Pam Bondi plus resignations by Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer and DNI Tulsi Gabbard.** Broader data show elevated turnover among Senate-confirmed officials and non-confirmed appointees compared with prior administrations, driven by performance disputes, personal factors, agency-specific pressures in immigration and justice portfolios, and the typical mid-presidency attrition pattern. The narrow spread between the leading outcomes reflects uncertainty over whether this pace will moderate or continue through the final quarter, with traders weighing institutional continuity against ongoing personnel churn. Upcoming Senate confirmations, agency leadership reviews, or major policy milestones could shift probabilities by altering incentives for further exits.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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