As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia track 37 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 bucket. This elevated retirement wave reflects members opting to run for other offices such as governor or Senate seats, combined with standard midterm dynamics where the president’s party often sees higher attrition. Institutional factors including slim majorities, primary challenges, and redistricting have also contributed to decisions by longer-serving Republicans. Recent counts have stabilized near 37 after earlier announcements, with few additional departures reported in the past month, supporting trader consensus around this range while leaving limited room for late shifts before filing deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
36–39 81.2%
40–43 6.2%
44+ 3.3%
<24 2.9%
$71,657 Vol.
$71,657 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
3%
24–27
2%
28–31
1%
32–35
1%
36–39
81%
40–43
6%
44+
3%
36–39 81.2%
40–43 6.2%
44+ 3.3%
<24 2.9%
$71,657 Vol.
$71,657 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$6,236 Vol.
3%
24–27
$20,139 Vol.
2%
28–31
$23,623 Vol.
1%
32–35
$6,149 Vol.
1%
36–39
$8,123 Vol.
81%
40–43
$3,846 Vol.
6%
44+
$3,541 Vol.
3%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia track 37 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 bucket. This elevated retirement wave reflects members opting to run for other offices such as governor or Senate seats, combined with standard midterm dynamics where the president’s party often sees higher attrition. Institutional factors including slim majorities, primary challenges, and redistricting have also contributed to decisions by longer-serving Republicans. Recent counts have stabilized near 37 after earlier announcements, with few additional departures reported in the past month, supporting trader consensus around this range while leaving limited room for late shifts before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$71,657End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia track 37 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 bucket. This elevated retirement wave reflects members opting to run for other offices such as governor or Senate seats, combined with standard midterm dynamics where the president’s party often sees higher attrition. Institutional factors including slim majorities, primary challenges, and redistricting have also contributed to decisions by longer-serving Republicans. Recent counts have stabilized near 37 after earlier announcements, with few additional departures reported in the past month, supporting trader consensus around this range while leaving limited room for late shifts before filing deadlines.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$71,657End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-August 2026, Ballotpedia and Wikipedia track 37 Republican House incumbents who have announced they will not seek re-election in the 2026 cycle, placing the total firmly in the market’s leading 36–39 bucket. This elevated retirement wave reflects members opting to run for other offices such as governor or Senate seats, combined with standard midterm dynamics where the president’s party often sees higher attrition. Institutional factors including slim majorities, primary challenges, and redistricting have also contributed to decisions by longer-serving Republicans. Recent counts have stabilized near 37 after earlier announcements, with few additional departures reported in the past month, supporting trader consensus around this range while leaving limited room for late shifts before filing deadlines.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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