As of mid-May 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the current tally near the lower end of the tightest market ranges. This pace already exceeds historical averages for the cycle and reflects widespread departures tied to a narrow GOP majority, redistricting shifts in several states, and members pursuing statewide offices such as Senate seats or governorships. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 40–43 and 44+ bins because additional retirement announcements remain likely before primaries conclude, particularly among members facing competitive primaries or institutional fatigue. The narrow gap between these outcomes underscores uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before November, with any late surge or slowdown directly determining whether totals settle in the low 40s or climb higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many Republican House members not running in 2026?
How many Republican House members not running in 2026?
44+ 40.9%
36–39 34.7%
28–31 13%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
<1%
24–27
<1%
28–31
13%
32–35
1%
36–39
31%
40–43
40%
44+
41%
44+ 40.9%
36–39 34.7%
28–31 13%
32–35 <1%
$56,541 Vol.
$56,541 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<24
$3,907 Vol.
<1%
24–27
$18,964 Vol.
<1%
28–31
$21,831 Vol.
13%
32–35
$4,611 Vol.
1%
36–39
$2,548 Vol.
31%
40–43
$2,077 Vol.
40%
44+
$2,602 Vol.
41%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-May 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the current tally near the lower end of the tightest market ranges. This pace already exceeds historical averages for the cycle and reflects widespread departures tied to a narrow GOP majority, redistricting shifts in several states, and members pursuing statewide offices such as Senate seats or governorships. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 40–43 and 44+ bins because additional retirement announcements remain likely before primaries conclude, particularly among members facing competitive primaries or institutional fatigue. The narrow gap between these outcomes underscores uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before November, with any late surge or slowdown directly determining whether totals settle in the low 40s or climb higher.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Volume
$56,541End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of mid-May 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the current tally near the lower end of the tightest market ranges. This pace already exceeds historical averages for the cycle and reflects widespread departures tied to a narrow GOP majority, redistricting shifts in several states, and members pursuing statewide offices such as Senate seats or governorships. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 40–43 and 44+ bins because additional retirement announcements remain likely before primaries conclude, particularly among members facing competitive primaries or institutional fatigue. The narrow gap between these outcomes underscores uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before November, with any late surge or slowdown directly determining whether totals settle in the low 40s or climb higher.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$56,541End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of mid-May 2026, 36 Republican House members have announced they will not seek re-election, placing the current tally near the lower end of the tightest market ranges. This pace already exceeds historical averages for the cycle and reflects widespread departures tied to a narrow GOP majority, redistricting shifts in several states, and members pursuing statewide offices such as Senate seats or governorships. Traders assign roughly equal weight to the 40–43 and 44+ bins because additional retirement announcements remain likely before primaries conclude, particularly among members facing competitive primaries or institutional fatigue. The narrow gap between these outcomes underscores uncertainty over how many more incumbents will exit before November, with any late surge or slowdown directly determining whether totals settle in the low 40s or climb higher.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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