Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward that total. Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship instead). These exits reflect a mix of long-serving members stepping aside, primary pressures, and opportunities for other offices, consistent with historical patterns in post-redistricting or post-presidential cycles. No additional Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary timelines have not triggered further shifts, keeping probabilities for 9 or higher outcomes low while reinforcing the current seven as the baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
1%
5
3%
6
1%
7
77%
8
1%
9
5%
10
2%
11
6%
12+
1%
7 77%
11 11.3%
9 5.4%
5 3.4%
$101,009 Vol.
$101,009 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<5
$22,734 Vol.
1%
5
$17,485 Vol.
3%
6
$27,247 Vol.
1%
7
$16,967 Vol.
77%
8
$4,602 Vol.
1%
9
$2,208 Vol.
5%
10
$1,839 Vol.
2%
11
$2,845 Vol.
6%
12+
$5,082 Vol.
1%
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward that total. Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship instead). These exits reflect a mix of long-serving members stepping aside, primary pressures, and opportunities for other offices, consistent with historical patterns in post-redistricting or post-presidential cycles. No additional Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary timelines have not triggered further shifts, keeping probabilities for 9 or higher outcomes low while reinforcing the current seven as the baseline.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volume
$101,009End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward that total. Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship instead). These exits reflect a mix of long-serving members stepping aside, primary pressures, and opportunities for other offices, consistent with historical patterns in post-redistricting or post-presidential cycles. No additional Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary timelines have not triggered further shifts, keeping probabilities for 9 or higher outcomes low while reinforcing the current seven as the baseline.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$101,009End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Seven Republican senators have announced they will not seek re-election in 2026, aligning with the market's heavy weighting toward that total. Confirmed departures include Mitch McConnell (KY), Joni Ernst (IA), Thom Tillis (NC), Steve Daines (MT), Cynthia Lummis (WY), Alan Armstrong (OK), and Tommy Tuberville (AL, pursuing the governorship instead). These exits reflect a mix of long-serving members stepping aside, primary pressures, and opportunities for other offices, consistent with historical patterns in post-redistricting or post-presidential cycles. No additional Republican retirements have materialized in recent weeks, and filing deadlines plus primary timelines have not triggered further shifts, keeping probabilities for 9 or higher outcomes low while reinforcing the current seven as the baseline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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