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Elections·Congress

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

icon for How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?
Elections·Congress

How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?

7 64%

11 18.4%

8 14.6%

6 10.8%

Polymarket

$73,731 Vol.

7 64%

11 18.4%

8 14.6%

6 10.8%

Polymarket

$73,731 Vol.

<5

$20,070 Vol.

1%

5

$15,535 Vol.

5%

6

$26,450 Vol.

11%

7

$2,145 Vol.

64%

8

$1,599 Vol.

14%

9

$1,328 Vol.

3%

10

$1,265 Vol.

3%

11

$923 Vol.

18%

12+

$4,416 Vol.

1%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not running for re-election in the 2026 midterms (66.5% implied probability), matching the current count of seven Class II incumbents who have announced they will not seek another term among the 20 GOP-held seats up for grabs. This includes six retiring—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) pursuing the governorship. Oklahoma's Armstrong announcement on March 24 elevated the tally to seven, the last major development, with no further retirements in the past 30 days amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits. Odds on eight (16.3%) or eleven (18.6%) reflect bets on additional incumbents bowing out before filing deadlines, though stability persists ahead of primaries.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,731
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors exactly seven Republican senators not running for re-election in the 2026 midterms (66.5% implied probability), matching the current count of seven Class II incumbents who have announced they will not seek another term among the 20 GOP-held seats up for grabs. This includes six retiring—Mitch McConnell (Kentucky), Thom Tillis (North Carolina), Joni Ernst (Iowa), Cynthia Lummis (Wyoming), Steve Daines (Montana), and Alan Armstrong (Oklahoma)—plus Tommy Tuberville (Alabama) pursuing the governorship. Oklahoma's Armstrong announcement on March 24 elevated the tally to seven, the last major development, with no further retirements in the past 30 days amid a record wave of GOP congressional exits. Odds on eight (16.3%) or eleven (18.6%) reflect bets on additional incumbents bowing out before filing deadlines, though stability persists ahead of primaries.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$73,731
End Date
Aug 31, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 12, 2025, 6:43 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Republican members of the U.S. Senate who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the Senate may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "7" at 64%, followed by "11" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 64¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?" has generated $73.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?" is "7" at 64%, meaning the market assigns a 64% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "11" at 18%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "How many Republican Senators not running in 2026?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.