**Iran's internal power struggles and hardline accusations of a "soft coup" or political maneuvering have intensified amid the aftermath of the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Post-strike leadership vacuums, IRGC influence under figures like Ahmad Vahidi, and disputes over the Supreme National Security Council's expanded role versus traditional clerical authority have fueled rhetoric from ultra-conservatives against pragmatists such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian. Earlier 2025–2026 protests against economic conditions and the regime were suppressed through security force actions, limiting visible challenges. Trader consensus assigns only a 12% probability to a widely reported coup attempt by December 31, 2026, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, ongoing truce negotiations, and absence of confirmed organized challenges despite regime-change pressures from external actors. Potential catalysts include further diplomatic shifts or leadership succession disputes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,115,813 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
12%
$2,115,813 Vol.
December 31
$74,587 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's internal power struggles and hardline accusations of a "soft coup" or political maneuvering have intensified amid the aftermath of the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Post-strike leadership vacuums, IRGC influence under figures like Ahmad Vahidi, and disputes over the Supreme National Security Council's expanded role versus traditional clerical authority have fueled rhetoric from ultra-conservatives against pragmatists such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian. Earlier 2025–2026 protests against economic conditions and the regime were suppressed through security force actions, limiting visible challenges. Trader consensus assigns only a 12% probability to a widely reported coup attempt by December 31, 2026, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, ongoing truce negotiations, and absence of confirmed organized challenges despite regime-change pressures from external actors. Potential catalysts include further diplomatic shifts or leadership succession disputes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Iran's internal power struggles and hardline accusations of a "soft coup" or political maneuvering have intensified amid the aftermath of the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Post-strike leadership vacuums, IRGC influence under figures like Ahmad Vahidi, and disputes over the Supreme National Security Council's expanded role versus traditional clerical authority have fueled rhetoric from ultra-conservatives against pragmatists such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian. Earlier 2025–2026 protests against economic conditions and the regime were suppressed through security force actions, limiting visible challenges. Trader consensus assigns only a 12% probability to a widely reported coup attempt by December 31, 2026, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, ongoing truce negotiations, and absence of confirmed organized challenges despite regime-change pressures from external actors. Potential catalysts include further diplomatic shifts or leadership succession disputes before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,115,813End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Iran's internal power struggles and hardline accusations of a "soft coup" or political maneuvering have intensified amid the aftermath of the February 2026 U.S.-Israel military operation that killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.** Post-strike leadership vacuums, IRGC influence under figures like Ahmad Vahidi, and disputes over the Supreme National Security Council's expanded role versus traditional clerical authority have fueled rhetoric from ultra-conservatives against pragmatists such as Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and Masoud Pezeshkian. Earlier 2025–2026 protests against economic conditions and the regime were suppressed through security force actions, limiting visible challenges. Trader consensus assigns only a 12% probability to a widely reported coup attempt by December 31, 2026, reflecting the regime's demonstrated resilience, ongoing truce negotiations, and absence of confirmed organized challenges despite regime-change pressures from external actors. Potential catalysts include further diplomatic shifts or leadership succession disputes before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions