Iran's post-conflict environment after the February 2026 war, U.S.-Israeli strikes, and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified internal factional tensions and hardliner accusations of coup plotting against transitional figures like President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. No widely reported military or organized coup attempt has materialized through mid-August 2026, keeping the implied probability near 12% through year-end. Ongoing power struggles, regime change discussions by external actors, and calls for vengeance or stability among IRGC and clerical networks represent the main variables. Resolution depends on verifiable reporting of an attempt by December 31, 2026, with scheduled diplomatic or leadership transitions potentially shifting dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$2,117,676 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
11%
$2,117,676 Vol.
December 31
$76,450 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-conflict environment after the February 2026 war, U.S.-Israeli strikes, and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified internal factional tensions and hardliner accusations of coup plotting against transitional figures like President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. No widely reported military or organized coup attempt has materialized through mid-August 2026, keeping the implied probability near 12% through year-end. Ongoing power struggles, regime change discussions by external actors, and calls for vengeance or stability among IRGC and clerical networks represent the main variables. Resolution depends on verifiable reporting of an attempt by December 31, 2026, with scheduled diplomatic or leadership transitions potentially shifting dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ET
Volume
$2,117,676End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's post-conflict environment after the February 2026 war, U.S.-Israeli strikes, and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified internal factional tensions and hardliner accusations of coup plotting against transitional figures like President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. No widely reported military or organized coup attempt has materialized through mid-August 2026, keeping the implied probability near 12% through year-end. Ongoing power struggles, regime change discussions by external actors, and calls for vengeance or stability among IRGC and clerical networks represent the main variables. Resolution depends on verifiable reporting of an attempt by December 31, 2026, with scheduled diplomatic or leadership transitions potentially shifting dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a widely reported coup attempt in Iran at any point between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
A coup attempt is defined as a coordinated and deliberate effort by military, security forces, or other state actors (or factions thereof) to overthrow or unlawfully seize control of the Iranian government or its leadership. Revolutionary actions by non-state forces, isolated protests, or general unrest will not alone qualify.
Claims by the Iranian government that a coup attempt was foiled—such as through arrests or disruption of a planned operation—will only count toward a "Yes" resolution if credible independent sources widely report and explicitly characterize the event as a coup attempt. Foiled plots or arrests that occur without any attempted execution of the coup will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,117,676End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 30, 2026, 5:13 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's post-conflict environment after the February 2026 war, U.S.-Israeli strikes, and assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has intensified internal factional tensions and hardliner accusations of coup plotting against transitional figures like President Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. No widely reported military or organized coup attempt has materialized through mid-August 2026, keeping the implied probability near 12% through year-end. Ongoing power struggles, regime change discussions by external actors, and calls for vengeance or stability among IRGC and clerical networks represent the main variables. Resolution depends on verifiable reporting of an attempt by December 31, 2026, with scheduled diplomatic or leadership transitions potentially shifting dynamics.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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