Opposition parties KMT (52 seats) and TPP (8 seats) in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan have advanced impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te over his administration's refusal to countersign contested legislation, culminating in a roll-call vote scheduled for May 19—four days away. However, securing the required three-quarters majority (85 votes) remains mathematically impossible without unprecedented DPP defections from their 51 seats, as opposition holds just 60 combined. Recent hearings on May 14 saw Lai absent amid mutual accusations of democratic evasion, but no momentum has shifted trader consensus toward "Yes," reflecting 98% implied probability of "No" by June 30. Only a late-breaking scandal or mass cross-party revolt could alter this, though historical precedents favor procedural failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?
$618,895 Vol.
$618,895 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$618,895 Vol.
$618,895 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Opposition parties KMT (52 seats) and TPP (8 seats) in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan have advanced impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te over his administration's refusal to countersign contested legislation, culminating in a roll-call vote scheduled for May 19—four days away. However, securing the required three-quarters majority (85 votes) remains mathematically impossible without unprecedented DPP defections from their 51 seats, as opposition holds just 60 combined. Recent hearings on May 14 saw Lai absent amid mutual accusations of democratic evasion, but no momentum has shifted trader consensus toward "Yes," reflecting 98% implied probability of "No" by June 30. Only a late-breaking scandal or mass cross-party revolt could alter this, though historical precedents favor procedural failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Market Opened: Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ET
Volume
$618,895End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.Opposition parties KMT (52 seats) and TPP (8 seats) in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan have advanced impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te over his administration's refusal to countersign contested legislation, culminating in a roll-call vote scheduled for May 19—four days away. However, securing the required three-quarters majority (85 votes) remains mathematically impossible without unprecedented DPP defections from their 51 seats, as opposition holds just 60 combined. Recent hearings on May 14 saw Lai absent amid mutual accusations of democratic evasion, but no momentum has shifted trader consensus toward "Yes," reflecting 98% implied probability of "No" by June 30. Only a late-breaking scandal or mass cross-party revolt could alter this, though historical precedents favor procedural failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment.
The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$618,895End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Jan 2, 2026, 8:15 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Opposition parties KMT (52 seats) and TPP (8 seats) in Taiwan's 113-seat Legislative Yuan have advanced impeachment proceedings against President Lai Ching-te over his administration's refusal to countersign contested legislation, culminating in a roll-call vote scheduled for May 19—four days away. However, securing the required three-quarters majority (85 votes) remains mathematically impossible without unprecedented DPP defections from their 51 seats, as opposition holds just 60 combined. Recent hearings on May 14 saw Lai absent amid mutual accusations of democratic evasion, but no momentum has shifted trader consensus toward "Yes," reflecting 98% implied probability of "No" by June 30. Only a late-breaking scandal or mass cross-party revolt could alter this, though historical precedents favor procedural failure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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