Current short-range forecast models from agencies including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles project a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 26 in the 10–13°C range, driven by persistent high pressure over the southeast Atlantic that favors moderate southeasterly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with climatological winter baselines for the region, where typical August lows hover near 8–12°C absent strong cold fronts. Recent observations through mid-August show occasional dips to 5–7°C during clearer, calmer nights, yet the latest model consensus indicates milder conditions ahead with no major atmospheric shift expected before the 26th. Market-implied odds reflect this baseline tempered by residual forecast uncertainty in exact overnight minima and local urban heat-island effects, while the elevated probability assigned to 8°C or below captures historical variance and potential model spread in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on August 26?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on August 26?
18°C or higher 59%
13°C 49%
8°C or below 45%
10°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
45%
9°C
25%
10°C
28%
11°C
28%
12°C
25%
13°C
49%
14°C
19%
15°C
2%
16°C
19%
17°C
19%
18°C or higher
59%
18°C or higher 59%
13°C 49%
8°C or below 45%
10°C 28%
NEW
NEW
Aug 26, 2026
8°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
9°C
$0 Vol.
25%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
28%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
49%
14°C
$0 Vol.
19%
15°C
$0 Vol.
2%
16°C
$0 Vol.
19%
17°C
$0 Vol.
19%
18°C or higher
$0 Vol.
59%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models from agencies including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles project a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 26 in the 10–13°C range, driven by persistent high pressure over the southeast Atlantic that favors moderate southeasterly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with climatological winter baselines for the region, where typical August lows hover near 8–12°C absent strong cold fronts. Recent observations through mid-August show occasional dips to 5–7°C during clearer, calmer nights, yet the latest model consensus indicates milder conditions ahead with no major atmospheric shift expected before the 26th. Market-implied odds reflect this baseline tempered by residual forecast uncertainty in exact overnight minima and local urban heat-island effects, while the elevated probability assigned to 8°C or below captures historical variance and potential model spread in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current short-range forecast models from agencies including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles project a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 26 in the 10–13°C range, driven by persistent high pressure over the southeast Atlantic that favors moderate southeasterly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with climatological winter baselines for the region, where typical August lows hover near 8–12°C absent strong cold fronts. Recent observations through mid-August show occasional dips to 5–7°C during clearer, calmer nights, yet the latest model consensus indicates milder conditions ahead with no major atmospheric shift expected before the 26th. Market-implied odds reflect this baseline tempered by residual forecast uncertainty in exact overnight minima and local urban heat-island effects, while the elevated probability assigned to 8°C or below captures historical variance and potential model spread in the final 48 hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 26, 2026Market Opened
Aug 24, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current short-range forecast models from agencies including the South African Weather Service and international ensembles project a minimum temperature for Cape Town on August 26 in the 10–13°C range, driven by persistent high pressure over the southeast Atlantic that favors moderate southeasterly flow and limited nocturnal cooling under partly cloudy skies. This aligns with climatological winter baselines for the region, where typical August lows hover near 8–12°C absent strong cold fronts. Recent observations through mid-August show occasional dips to 5–7°C during clearer, calmer nights, yet the latest model consensus indicates milder conditions ahead with no major atmospheric shift expected before the 26th. Market-implied odds reflect this baseline tempered by residual forecast uncertainty in exact overnight minima and local urban heat-island effects, while the elevated probability assigned to 8°C or below captures historical variance and potential model spread in the final 48 hours.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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