**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 30, 2026, centers on the mid-60s°F range, with 66-67°F holding the highest implied probability (35%) followed by 68-69°F (24%).** Official National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a low near 64°F under partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high pressure lingering from the east, while some guidance and ensemble runs point slightly higher. This spread creates the observed concentration in the 64-69°F bins. Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight under variable cloud cover, modest dew points supporting efficient heat loss, and the transition from northerly flow to a milder southerly regime that limits further cooling. Historical normals for late August lows hover around 66°F, so the market-implied distribution aligns closely with a near-normal but slightly variable outcome. Recent model updates show limited disagreement on the overnight minimum, with no major pattern shifts in the past 48 hours; incoming moisture and a slight afternoon shower chance on August 30 may modestly influence the daily minimum but are unlikely to alter the core overnight reading substantially. Traders are thus weighting the consensus envelope from NWS and supporting guidance, with the tight clustering around 66-69°F reflecting both forecast skill at this short range and awareness of typical model spread for boundary-layer temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in NYC on August 30?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 30?
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 35%
64-65°F 15%
70-71°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
57°F or below
1%
58-59°F
3%
60-61°F
4%
62-63°F
8%
64-65°F
15%
66-67°F
35%
68-69°F
24%
70-71°F
10%
72-73°F
5%
74-75°F
3%
76°F or higher
1%
68-69°F 42%
66-67°F 35%
64-65°F 15%
70-71°F 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
57°F or below
$26 Vol.
1%
58-59°F
$15 Vol.
3%
60-61°F
$311 Vol.
4%
62-63°F
$336 Vol.
8%
64-65°F
$55 Vol.
15%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
35%
68-69°F
$32 Vol.
24%
70-71°F
$44 Vol.
10%
72-73°F
$18 Vol.
5%
74-75°F
$40 Vol.
3%
76°F or higher
$66 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 30, 2026, centers on the mid-60s°F range, with 66-67°F holding the highest implied probability (35%) followed by 68-69°F (24%).** Official National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a low near 64°F under partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high pressure lingering from the east, while some guidance and ensemble runs point slightly higher. This spread creates the observed concentration in the 64-69°F bins.
Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight under variable cloud cover, modest dew points supporting efficient heat loss, and the transition from northerly flow to a milder southerly regime that limits further cooling. Historical normals for late August lows hover around 66°F, so the market-implied distribution aligns closely with a near-normal but slightly variable outcome. Recent model updates show limited disagreement on the overnight minimum, with no major pattern shifts in the past 48 hours; incoming moisture and a slight afternoon shower chance on August 30 may modestly influence the daily minimum but are unlikely to alter the core overnight reading substantially. Traders are thus weighting the consensus envelope from NWS and supporting guidance, with the tight clustering around 66-69°F reflecting both forecast skill at this short range and awareness of typical model spread for boundary-layer temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ET
Volume
$943End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 30, 2026, centers on the mid-60s°F range, with 66-67°F holding the highest implied probability (35%) followed by 68-69°F (24%).** Official National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a low near 64°F under partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high pressure lingering from the east, while some guidance and ensemble runs point slightly higher. This spread creates the observed concentration in the 64-69°F bins.
Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight under variable cloud cover, modest dew points supporting efficient heat loss, and the transition from northerly flow to a milder southerly regime that limits further cooling. Historical normals for late August lows hover around 66°F, so the market-implied distribution aligns closely with a near-normal but slightly variable outcome. Recent model updates show limited disagreement on the overnight minimum, with no major pattern shifts in the past 48 hours; incoming moisture and a slight afternoon shower chance on August 30 may modestly influence the daily minimum but are unlikely to alter the core overnight reading substantially. Traders are thus weighting the consensus envelope from NWS and supporting guidance, with the tight clustering around 66-69°F reflecting both forecast skill at this short range and awareness of typical model spread for boundary-layer temperatures.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$943End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for the lowest temperature in NYC on August 30, 2026, centers on the mid-60s°F range, with 66-67°F holding the highest implied probability (35%) followed by 68-69°F (24%).** Official National Weather Service forecasts from the New York office project a low near 64°F under partly cloudy skies, light southwest winds, and high pressure lingering from the east, while some guidance and ensemble runs point slightly higher. This spread creates the observed concentration in the 64-69°F bins. Key scientific drivers include radiative cooling overnight under variable cloud cover, modest dew points supporting efficient heat loss, and the transition from northerly flow to a milder southerly regime that limits further cooling. Historical normals for late August lows hover around 66°F, so the market-implied distribution aligns closely with a near-normal but slightly variable outcome. Recent model updates show limited disagreement on the overnight minimum, with no major pattern shifts in the past 48 hours; incoming moisture and a slight afternoon shower chance on August 30 may modestly influence the daily minimum but are unlikely to alter the core overnight reading substantially. Traders are thus weighting the consensus envelope from NWS and supporting guidance, with the tight clustering around 66-69°F reflecting both forecast skill at this short range and awareness of typical model spread for boundary-layer temperatures.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions