Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer have kept San Francisco overnight temperatures below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service observations showing a 56–59°F low on August 28 and model guidance for mid-50s readings overnight into August 29. Westerly winds of 10–20 mph and high humidity near 90% are limiting radiational cooling while favoring advection of cooler Pacific air, pushing the probability-weighted range toward the lower 50s or below. Historical analogs indicate August 29 averages a 56°F low, yet recent model runs have trended cooler, elevating the market-implied chance of a 49°F-or-below reading to 43% as traders incorporate the latest NWS and NOAA guidance ahead of final overnight observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 29?
49°F or below 93%
50-51°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
56-57°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
93%
50-51°F
49%
52-53°F
26%
54-55°F
26%
56-57°F
27%
58-59°F
27%
60-61°F
24%
62-63°F
49%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
10%
68°F or higher
<1%
49°F or below 93%
50-51°F 49%
62-63°F 49%
56-57°F 27%
NEW
NEW
Aug 29, 2026
49°F or below
$82 Vol.
93%
50-51°F
$50 Vol.
49%
52-53°F
$10 Vol.
26%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
26%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
27%
58-59°F
$5 Vol.
27%
60-61°F
$73 Vol.
24%
62-63°F
$44 Vol.
49%
64-65°F
$5 Vol.
<1%
66-67°F
$147 Vol.
10%
68°F or higher
$21 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer have kept San Francisco overnight temperatures below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service observations showing a 56–59°F low on August 28 and model guidance for mid-50s readings overnight into August 29. Westerly winds of 10–20 mph and high humidity near 90% are limiting radiational cooling while favoring advection of cooler Pacific air, pushing the probability-weighted range toward the lower 50s or below. Historical analogs indicate August 29 averages a 56°F low, yet recent model runs have trended cooler, elevating the market-implied chance of a 49°F-or-below reading to 43% as traders incorporate the latest NWS and NOAA guidance ahead of final overnight observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$438End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer have kept San Francisco overnight temperatures below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service observations showing a 56–59°F low on August 28 and model guidance for mid-50s readings overnight into August 29. Westerly winds of 10–20 mph and high humidity near 90% are limiting radiational cooling while favoring advection of cooler Pacific air, pushing the probability-weighted range toward the lower 50s or below. Historical analogs indicate August 29 averages a 56°F low, yet recent model runs have trended cooler, elevating the market-implied chance of a 49°F-or-below reading to 43% as traders incorporate the latest NWS and NOAA guidance ahead of final overnight observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 29 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$438End Date
Aug 29, 2026Market Opened
Aug 27, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent onshore flow and a strengthening marine layer have kept San Francisco overnight temperatures below seasonal norms, with National Weather Service observations showing a 56–59°F low on August 28 and model guidance for mid-50s readings overnight into August 29. Westerly winds of 10–20 mph and high humidity near 90% are limiting radiational cooling while favoring advection of cooler Pacific air, pushing the probability-weighted range toward the lower 50s or below. Historical analogs indicate August 29 averages a 56°F low, yet recent model runs have trended cooler, elevating the market-implied chance of a 49°F-or-below reading to 43% as traders incorporate the latest NWS and NOAA guidance ahead of final overnight observations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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