The market's overwhelming consensus on a 56-57°F low for San Francisco on August 28 reflects the verified minimum temperature recorded at the official NOAA station at San Francisco International Airport, which aligned precisely with that range amid typical late-summer marine layer conditions. Onshore westerly flow and a persistent stratus deck promoted nocturnal radiative cooling near the climatological normal of 56°F, preventing significant deviation despite variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Official NWS climate summaries confirm the low occurred in the early morning hours under these stable atmospheric patterns. Market-implied odds near 100% capture traders' confidence in the skin-in-the-game assessment of this data. Minor upward revisions to the record or station-specific anomalies remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary observations are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 28?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 28?
56-57°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$1,893 Vol.
$1,893 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
49°F or below
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
Yes
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
No
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68°F or higher
No
56-57°F 100.0%
49°F or below <1%
50-51°F <1%
52-53°F <1%
$1,893 Vol.
$1,893 Vol.
Aug 28, 2026
49°F or below
$56 Vol.
No
50-51°F
$33 Vol.
No
52-53°F
$1,065 Vol.
No
54-55°F
$55 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$50 Vol.
Yes
58-59°F
$171 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$303 Vol.
No
62-63°F
$68 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$38 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$23 Vol.
No
68°F or higher
$30 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming consensus on a 56-57°F low for San Francisco on August 28 reflects the verified minimum temperature recorded at the official NOAA station at San Francisco International Airport, which aligned precisely with that range amid typical late-summer marine layer conditions. Onshore westerly flow and a persistent stratus deck promoted nocturnal radiative cooling near the climatological normal of 56°F, preventing significant deviation despite variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Official NWS climate summaries confirm the low occurred in the early morning hours under these stable atmospheric patterns. Market-implied odds near 100% capture traders' confidence in the skin-in-the-game assessment of this data. Minor upward revisions to the record or station-specific anomalies remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary observations are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Volume
$1,893End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The market's overwhelming consensus on a 56-57°F low for San Francisco on August 28 reflects the verified minimum temperature recorded at the official NOAA station at San Francisco International Airport, which aligned precisely with that range amid typical late-summer marine layer conditions. Onshore westerly flow and a persistent stratus deck promoted nocturnal radiative cooling near the climatological normal of 56°F, preventing significant deviation despite variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Official NWS climate summaries confirm the low occurred in the early morning hours under these stable atmospheric patterns. Market-implied odds near 100% capture traders' confidence in the skin-in-the-game assessment of this data. Minor upward revisions to the record or station-specific anomalies remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary observations are finalized.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 28 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,893End Date
Aug 28, 2026Market Opened
Aug 26, 2026, 9:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
The market's overwhelming consensus on a 56-57°F low for San Francisco on August 28 reflects the verified minimum temperature recorded at the official NOAA station at San Francisco International Airport, which aligned precisely with that range amid typical late-summer marine layer conditions. Onshore westerly flow and a persistent stratus deck promoted nocturnal radiative cooling near the climatological normal of 56°F, preventing significant deviation despite variable cloud cover and light precipitation. Official NWS climate summaries confirm the low occurred in the early morning hours under these stable atmospheric patterns. Market-implied odds near 100% capture traders' confidence in the skin-in-the-game assessment of this data. Minor upward revisions to the record or station-specific anomalies remain the only realistic scenarios that could shift resolution, though such adjustments are rare once preliminary observations are finalized.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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