Current National Weather Service and private forecasts for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–56 °F on August 30, driven by a persistent marine layer under southwest onshore flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant warming. This setup aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.8 °F for late August and produces the close clustering of market-implied probabilities around 54–57 °F. Slight differences among the leading bins reflect uncertainty in marine-layer depth, exact timing of any stratus burn-off, and microclimate variations across official reporting sites. No anomalous synoptic features are expected to shift the outcome outside the typical mid-50s range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 30?
54-55°F 52%
62-63°F 46%
56-57°F 38%
60-61°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
47°F or below
1%
48-49°F
2%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
16%
54-55°F
33%
56-57°F
38%
58-59°F
22%
60-61°F
26%
62-63°F
46%
64-65°F
14%
66°F or higher
3%
54-55°F 52%
62-63°F 46%
56-57°F 38%
60-61°F 26%
NEW
NEW
Aug 30, 2026
47°F or below
$263 Vol.
1%
48-49°F
$31 Vol.
2%
50-51°F
$54 Vol.
8%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
16%
54-55°F
$115 Vol.
33%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
38%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
22%
60-61°F
$62 Vol.
26%
62-63°F
$20 Vol.
46%
64-65°F
$75 Vol.
14%
66°F or higher
$10 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private forecasts for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–56 °F on August 30, driven by a persistent marine layer under southwest onshore flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant warming. This setup aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.8 °F for late August and produces the close clustering of market-implied probabilities around 54–57 °F. Slight differences among the leading bins reflect uncertainty in marine-layer depth, exact timing of any stratus burn-off, and microclimate variations across official reporting sites. No anomalous synoptic features are expected to shift the outcome outside the typical mid-50s range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volume
$630End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current National Weather Service and private forecasts for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–56 °F on August 30, driven by a persistent marine layer under southwest onshore flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant warming. This setup aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.8 °F for late August and produces the close clustering of market-implied probabilities around 54–57 °F. Slight differences among the leading bins reflect uncertainty in marine-layer depth, exact timing of any stratus burn-off, and microclimate variations across official reporting sites. No anomalous synoptic features are expected to shift the outcome outside the typical mid-50s range before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$630End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current National Weather Service and private forecasts for San Francisco indicate a minimum temperature near 55–56 °F on August 30, driven by a persistent marine layer under southwest onshore flow that limits nocturnal radiative cooling while preventing significant warming. This setup aligns with the seasonal average low of 55.8 °F for late August and produces the close clustering of market-implied probabilities around 54–57 °F. Slight differences among the leading bins reflect uncertainty in marine-layer depth, exact timing of any stratus burn-off, and microclimate variations across official reporting sites. No anomalous synoptic features are expected to shift the outcome outside the typical mid-50s range before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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