Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 5?
28°C 98.5%
27°C 1.1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$13,488 Vol.
$13,488 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
99%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
28°C 98.5%
27°C 1.1%
23°C <1%
24°C <1%
$13,488 Vol.
$13,488 Vol.
Aug 5, 2026
22°C or below
$663 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$885 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$848 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$732 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$1,335 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$1,410 Vol.
1%
28°C
$4,418 Vol.
99%
29°C
$1,838 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$431 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$425 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$503 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$13,488End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,488End Date
Aug 5, 2026Market Opened
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing extreme heatwave conditions across South Korea, with KMA severe alerts and daytime maxima near 34–37°C, are suppressing nocturnal radiative cooling and elevating the morning minimum at Incheon International Airport. Clear skies, light winds, strong subsidence, and elevated humidity limit temperature drops, producing forecast lows of 26–28°C—well above the seasonal ~22–23°C baseline. This consensus from short-range models underpins the 98.2% market-implied probability for exactly 28°C. A realistic shift could occur with unanticipated afternoon or overnight cloud cover, localized precipitation, or altered steering patterns that enhance mixing and allow greater cooling before the 3–9 AM observation window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions