Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically yields minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by maritime air from the East China Sea and variable cloud cover that moderates nocturnal radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze flow might trim the low by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns before official station data finalize resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on May 17?
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
1%
19°C
99%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
19°C 99.4%
20°C <1%
18°C <1%
16°C <1%
$11,079 Vol.
$11,079 Vol.
May 17, 2026
14°C or below
$776 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$626 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$563 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$934 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$901 Vol.
1%
19°C
$2,045 Vol.
99%
20°C
$2,433 Vol.
1%
21°C
$913 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$528 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$583 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$778 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically yields minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by maritime air from the East China Sea and variable cloud cover that moderates nocturnal radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze flow might trim the low by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns before official station data finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Market Opened: May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ET
Volume
$11,079End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically yields minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by maritime air from the East China Sea and variable cloud cover that moderates nocturnal radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze flow might trim the low by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns before official station data finalize resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$11,079End Date
May 17, 2026Market Opened
May 13, 2026, 12:30 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDCurrent forecast ensembles from the ECMWF and GFS models show tight convergence on an overnight low of 19°C for Shanghai on May 17, underpinning the market’s overwhelming 99.5% implied probability for that exact outcome. Mid-May climatology under neutral spring conditions typically yields minima between 17°C and 21°C, influenced by maritime air from the East China Sea and variable cloud cover that moderates nocturnal radiative cooling. A persistent high-pressure ridge could nudge readings slightly higher, while a weak trough or enhanced sea-breeze flow might trim the low by one degree. Traders are watching the next China Meteorological Administration and ECMWF updates for any shifts in boundary-layer moisture or wind patterns before official station data finalize resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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