**Stable subtropical high-pressure conditions over eastern China have kept Shanghai under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds, supporting a forecast minimum temperature of 24°C overnight into September 13.** Multiple numerical weather models, including GFS guidance referenced in forecasts from sources such as Yr and local meteorological services, consistently project overnight lows near this level following daytime highs of 29–31°C. The region’s late-summer climatology—characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea and limited cold-air advection—further anchors the expected minimum close to 24°C. With the market-implied probability for 24°C exceeding 90%, trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts in this stable synoptic pattern. A modest deviation to 23°C or 25°C remains possible only if model runs shift due to unexpected increases in cloud cover or wind speed, though current observations and ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of such changes before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shanghai on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Shanghai on September 13?
24°C 97%
23°C 3%
22°C 1.0%
20°C <1%
NEW
$14,005 Vol.
NEW
$14,005 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
3%
24°C
97%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C or higher
<1%
24°C 97%
23°C 3%
22°C 1.0%
20°C <1%
NEW
$14,005 Vol.
NEW
$14,005 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
19°C or below
$256 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$911 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$3,531 Vol.
1%
23°C
$2,730 Vol.
3%
24°C
$4,108 Vol.
97%
25°C
$1,734 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$193 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$93 Vol.
<1%
29°C or higher
$163 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable subtropical high-pressure conditions over eastern China have kept Shanghai under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds, supporting a forecast minimum temperature of 24°C overnight into September 13.** Multiple numerical weather models, including GFS guidance referenced in forecasts from sources such as Yr and local meteorological services, consistently project overnight lows near this level following daytime highs of 29–31°C. The region’s late-summer climatology—characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea and limited cold-air advection—further anchors the expected minimum close to 24°C. With the market-implied probability for 24°C exceeding 90%, trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts in this stable synoptic pattern. A modest deviation to 23°C or 25°C remains possible only if model runs shift due to unexpected increases in cloud cover or wind speed, though current observations and ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of such changes before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$14,005End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Stable subtropical high-pressure conditions over eastern China have kept Shanghai under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds, supporting a forecast minimum temperature of 24°C overnight into September 13.** Multiple numerical weather models, including GFS guidance referenced in forecasts from sources such as Yr and local meteorological services, consistently project overnight lows near this level following daytime highs of 29–31°C. The region’s late-summer climatology—characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea and limited cold-air advection—further anchors the expected minimum close to 24°C. With the market-implied probability for 24°C exceeding 90%, trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts in this stable synoptic pattern. A modest deviation to 23°C or 25°C remains possible only if model runs shift due to unexpected increases in cloud cover or wind speed, though current observations and ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of such changes before the daily minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,005End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspdResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Stable subtropical high-pressure conditions over eastern China have kept Shanghai under clear to partly cloudy skies with light northeast winds, supporting a forecast minimum temperature of 24°C overnight into September 13.** Multiple numerical weather models, including GFS guidance referenced in forecasts from sources such as Yr and local meteorological services, consistently project overnight lows near this level following daytime highs of 29–31°C. The region’s late-summer climatology—characterized by warm sea-surface temperatures in the East China Sea and limited cold-air advection—further anchors the expected minimum close to 24°C. With the market-implied probability for 24°C exceeding 90%, trader consensus reflects the narrow uncertainty range typical of short-range temperature forecasts in this stable synoptic pattern. A modest deviation to 23°C or 25°C remains possible only if model runs shift due to unexpected increases in cloud cover or wind speed, though current observations and ensemble spreads indicate low likelihood of such changes before the daily minimum is recorded.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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