Isabelle Blais holds a commanding lead in trader consensus for the Maskinongé seat due to the Parti Québécois's strong polling momentum in the riding ahead of the October 5, 2026, Quebec general election. Recent projections show the PQ ahead of the incumbent Coalition Avenir Québec, with Blais benefiting from party momentum province-wide and her high-profile nomination as the PQ candidate in April. Incumbent Simon Allaire faces headwinds from broader CAQ challenges, while Liberal, Québec solidaire, and Conservative candidates trail in fragmented support. With the election less than a week away, late shifts in turnout or consolidation among non-PQ voters represent the main scenarios that could alter the outcome, though current evidence points to limited room for such movement.