Bob Onder's incumbency in Missouri's 3rd congressional district anchors the Republican Party's 91% implied probability, reflecting the seat's consistent conservative lean, strong primary performance, and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Republican. The August 4 Democratic primary win by Bethany Mann consolidated opposition without shifting the underlying electoral math in a district that has favored GOP candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price limited upset potential absent major late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unexpected national partisan swing that could compress the margin before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMO-03 House Election Winner
MO-03 House Election Winner
$21,050 Vol.
$21,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
91%
Democratic Party
8%
$21,050 Vol.
$21,050 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,172 Vol.
91%
Democratic Party
$14,878 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Bob Onder's incumbency in Missouri's 3rd congressional district anchors the Republican Party's 91% implied probability, reflecting the seat's consistent conservative lean, strong primary performance, and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Republican. The August 4 Democratic primary win by Bethany Mann consolidated opposition without shifting the underlying electoral math in a district that has favored GOP candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price limited upset potential absent major late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unexpected national partisan swing that could compress the margin before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
Volume
$21,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Bob Onder's incumbency in Missouri's 3rd congressional district anchors the Republican Party's 91% implied probability, reflecting the seat's consistent conservative lean, strong primary performance, and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Republican. The August 4 Democratic primary win by Bethany Mann consolidated opposition without shifting the underlying electoral math in a district that has favored GOP candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price limited upset potential absent major late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unexpected national partisan swing that could compress the margin before the November 3, 2026 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MO-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$21,050End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Bob Onder's incumbency in Missouri's 3rd congressional district anchors the Republican Party's 91% implied probability, reflecting the seat's consistent conservative lean, strong primary performance, and nonpartisan ratings classifying it as solid or safe Republican. The August 4 Democratic primary win by Bethany Mann consolidated opposition without shifting the underlying electoral math in a district that has favored GOP candidates by wide margins in recent cycles. Traders price limited upset potential absent major late developments such as scandals, health events, or an unexpected national partisan swing that could compress the margin before the November 3, 2026 general election.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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