The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, resuming daily issuances on May 15, shows no disturbances with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid dry air and Saharan dust suppressing activity across the central and eastern Atlantic. With only two weeks remaining until the official June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, this quiet pattern aligns with emerging El Niño conditions that favor sinking air and reduced storm formation. Historical data indicate May named storms occur roughly once every five to six years on average, though recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from groups like Colorado State University further support trader consensus favoring no early formation before the season begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, resuming daily issuances on May 15, shows no disturbances with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid dry air and Saharan dust suppressing activity across the central and eastern Atlantic. With only two weeks remaining until the official June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, this quiet pattern aligns with emerging El Niño conditions that favor sinking air and reduced storm formation. Historical data indicate May named storms occur roughly once every five to six years on average, though recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from groups like Colorado State University further support trader consensus favoring no early formation before the season begins.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$341,219End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, resuming daily issuances on May 15, shows no disturbances with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid dry air and Saharan dust suppressing activity across the central and eastern Atlantic. With only two weeks remaining until the official June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, this quiet pattern aligns with emerging El Niño conditions that favor sinking air and reduced storm formation. Historical data indicate May named storms occur roughly once every five to six years on average, though recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from groups like Colorado State University further support trader consensus favoring no early formation before the season begins.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$341,219End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The National Hurricane Center's latest Tropical Weather Outlook, resuming daily issuances on May 15, shows no disturbances with potential for tropical cyclone development over the next seven days amid dry air and Saharan dust suppressing activity across the central and eastern Atlantic. With only two weeks remaining until the official June 1 start of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, this quiet pattern aligns with emerging El Niño conditions that favor sinking air and reduced storm formation. Historical data indicate May named storms occur roughly once every five to six years on average, though recent below-normal seasonal forecasts from groups like Colorado State University further support trader consensus favoring no early formation before the season begins.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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