Current conditions in the Atlantic basin show no tropical cyclones or organized disturbances, with the National Hurricane Center's May 15 resumption of daily outlooks highlighting only dry, suppressed waves moving westward at low latitudes. These atmospheric patterns, combined with lingering influences from a strengthening El Niño, have kept sea surface temperatures and wind shear unfavorable for early cyclogenesis. Historical records confirm that named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than one in five seasons on average, and with just two weeks until official season start, model consensus points to continued quiescence. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus around an 81 percent implied probability of no named storm forming beforehand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNamed storm forms before hurricane season?
Named storm forms before hurricane season?
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
May 31, 2026
$341,219 Vol.
$341,219 Vol.
May 31, 2026
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin show no tropical cyclones or organized disturbances, with the National Hurricane Center's May 15 resumption of daily outlooks highlighting only dry, suppressed waves moving westward at low latitudes. These atmospheric patterns, combined with lingering influences from a strengthening El Niño, have kept sea surface temperatures and wind shear unfavorable for early cyclogenesis. Historical records confirm that named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than one in five seasons on average, and with just two weeks until official season start, model consensus points to continued quiescence. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus around an 81 percent implied probability of no named storm forming beforehand.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Market Opened: Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ET
Volume
$341,219End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.Current conditions in the Atlantic basin show no tropical cyclones or organized disturbances, with the National Hurricane Center's May 15 resumption of daily outlooks highlighting only dry, suppressed waves moving westward at low latitudes. These atmospheric patterns, combined with lingering influences from a strengthening El Niño, have kept sea surface temperatures and wind shear unfavorable for early cyclogenesis. Historical records confirm that named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than one in five seasons on average, and with just two weeks until official season start, model consensus points to continued quiescence. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus around an 81 percent implied probability of no named storm forming beforehand.
The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season will take place over a period lasting from June 1 to November 30.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if NOAA names a storm in the Atlantic between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be NOAA’s list of named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/) and/or their data on individual storms.
If there is a potential named storm that has not yet been classified by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market may remain open until June 1, 12:00 PM ET to determine if a classification was made prior to midnight.
Volume
$341,219End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 4, 2025, 3:12 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Current conditions in the Atlantic basin show no tropical cyclones or organized disturbances, with the National Hurricane Center's May 15 resumption of daily outlooks highlighting only dry, suppressed waves moving westward at low latitudes. These atmospheric patterns, combined with lingering influences from a strengthening El Niño, have kept sea surface temperatures and wind shear unfavorable for early cyclogenesis. Historical records confirm that named storms before June 1 occur in fewer than one in five seasons on average, and with just two weeks until official season start, model consensus points to continued quiescence. This scientific backdrop underpins trader consensus around an 81 percent implied probability of no named storm forming beforehand.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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