The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in voting intentions and seat projections for the October 5 Quebec provincial election, driven by consistent support among francophone voters, recent gains in Montreal suburbs, and advantages in key regions under the first-past-the-post system. Recent polls from Segma, Pallas Data, and Léger show the PQ at 28-29 percent, ahead of the incumbent CAQ and PLQ near 22 percent each, with the PCQ and QS further back. This positioning reflects voter desire for change from the Fréchette-led government alongside Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s appeal on core issues. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include strong late-campaign momentum for the PCQ in Quebec City, shifts among undecided voters, differential turnout, or unexpected debate outcomes that redistribute seats among the fragmented opposition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedQuebec General Election Winner
Quebec General Election Winner
PQ 93%
CAQ 6%
PLQ 1.8%
QS <1%
$1,016,951 Vol.
$1,016,951 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
PQ
93%
CAQ
6%
PLQ
2%
QS
<1%
PCQ
<1%
PVQ
<1%
PQ 93%
CAQ 6%
PLQ 1.8%
QS <1%
$1,016,951 Vol.
$1,016,951 Vol.
Jan 31, 2027
PQ
$176,257 Vol.
93%
CAQ
$156,813 Vol.
6%
PLQ
$158,911 Vol.
2%
QS
$106,523 Vol.
<1%
PCQ
$260,926 Vol.
<1%
PVQ
$157,522 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in voting intentions and seat projections for the October 5 Quebec provincial election, driven by consistent support among francophone voters, recent gains in Montreal suburbs, and advantages in key regions under the first-past-the-post system. Recent polls from Segma, Pallas Data, and Léger show the PQ at 28-29 percent, ahead of the incumbent CAQ and PLQ near 22 percent each, with the PCQ and QS further back. This positioning reflects voter desire for change from the Fréchette-led government alongside Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s appeal on core issues. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include strong late-campaign momentum for the PCQ in Quebec City, shifts among undecided voters, differential turnout, or unexpected debate outcomes that redistribute seats among the fragmented opposition.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Market Opened: Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
Volume
$1,016,951End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in voting intentions and seat projections for the October 5 Quebec provincial election, driven by consistent support among francophone voters, recent gains in Montreal suburbs, and advantages in key regions under the first-past-the-post system. Recent polls from Segma, Pallas Data, and Léger show the PQ at 28-29 percent, ahead of the incumbent CAQ and PLQ near 22 percent each, with the PCQ and QS further back. This positioning reflects voter desire for change from the Fréchette-led government alongside Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s appeal on core issues. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include strong late-campaign momentum for the PCQ in Quebec City, shifts among undecided voters, differential turnout, or unexpected debate outcomes that redistribute seats among the fragmented opposition.
Parliamentary elections to elect all 127 seats of the National Assembly of Quebec are scheduled to take place in Quebec on October 5, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the National Assembly of Quebec as a result of this election.
If voting in the 2026 Quebec general election does not occur by January 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie for the most seats won between this party and any other, this market will resolve in favor of the party that won the most valid votes in the respective election. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Élections Québec (https://www.electionsquebec.qc.ca).
Volume
$1,016,951End Date
Feb 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 2, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Parti Québécois maintains a commanding lead in voting intentions and seat projections for the October 5 Quebec provincial election, driven by consistent support among francophone voters, recent gains in Montreal suburbs, and advantages in key regions under the first-past-the-post system. Recent polls from Segma, Pallas Data, and Léger show the PQ at 28-29 percent, ahead of the incumbent CAQ and PLQ near 22 percent each, with the PCQ and QS further back. This positioning reflects voter desire for change from the Fréchette-led government alongside Paul St-Pierre Plamondon’s appeal on core issues. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include strong late-campaign momentum for the PCQ in Quebec City, shifts among undecided voters, differential turnout, or unexpected debate outcomes that redistribute seats among the fragmented opposition.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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