Trader consensus implies a 98% probability that Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the absence of any verified developments forcing resignation, expulsion, or other departure since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee. That probe arose from Republican allegations of misconduct linked to ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, plus separate accusations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Gallego. No committee findings, indictments, or public actions have materialized in the past month, as Gallego actively advances legislation like the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation (passed committee May 14) and veterans' benefits. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, accelerated ethics outcomes prompting resignation, or a rare two-thirds Senate expulsion vote, though mid-term departures without criminal convictions remain historically uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 98% probability that Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the absence of any verified developments forcing resignation, expulsion, or other departure since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee. That probe arose from Republican allegations of misconduct linked to ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, plus separate accusations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Gallego. No committee findings, indictments, or public actions have materialized in the past month, as Gallego actively advances legislation like the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation (passed committee May 14) and veterans' benefits. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, accelerated ethics outcomes prompting resignation, or a rare two-thirds Senate expulsion vote, though mid-term departures without criminal convictions remain historically uncommon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ET
Volume
$3,649End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus implies a 98% probability that Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the absence of any verified developments forcing resignation, expulsion, or other departure since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee. That probe arose from Republican allegations of misconduct linked to ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, plus separate accusations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Gallego. No committee findings, indictments, or public actions have materialized in the past month, as Gallego actively advances legislation like the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation (passed committee May 14) and veterans' benefits. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, accelerated ethics outcomes prompting resignation, or a rare two-thirds Senate expulsion vote, though mid-term departures without criminal convictions remain historically uncommon.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ruben Gallego ceases to be United States Senator from Arizona for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An announcement of Gallego's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Ruben Gallego and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$3,649End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 4:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 98% probability that Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) will remain in office through May 31, reflecting the absence of any verified developments forcing resignation, expulsion, or other departure since an April ethics complaint referral to the Senate Ethics Committee. That probe arose from Republican allegations of misconduct linked to ex-Rep. Eric Swalwell's resignation over sexual assault claims, plus separate accusations by Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) of sexual misconduct and campaign finance violations against Gallego. No committee findings, indictments, or public actions have materialized in the past month, as Gallego actively advances legislation like the Clarity Act on cryptocurrency regulation (passed committee May 14) and veterans' benefits. Realistic shifts could stem from sudden health events, accelerated ethics outcomes prompting resignation, or a rare two-thirds Senate expulsion vote, though mid-term departures without criminal convictions remain historically uncommon.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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