**Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list leads trader consensus at 61% implied probability ahead of the October 25, 2026, snap parliamentary election, reflecting the Serbian Progressive Party’s (SNS) established organizational reach, coalition partnerships, and incumbency advantages despite sustained opposition pressure.** The election was called in early September after Vučić dissolved parliament, shifting the timeline from late 2027 amid nearly two years of student-led anti-government protests triggered by the November 2024 Novi Sad railway station collapse and related corruption allegations. Vučić, who cannot seek another presidential term, has signaled his intent to lead the SNS list and transition toward the prime minister role, framing the vote as a test of public support for the ruling direction. The Student List, backed by university professors and protest organizers, stands at 39% and draws from widespread disillusionment with mainstream parties, though it faces challenges in consolidating broader opposition votes across fragmented lists. Minor parties and regional lists, including those tied to Ivica Dačić, Rasim Ljajić, and others, trade at very low single-digit or fractional probabilities, underscoring limited expectations for them to secure the most seats. Traders appear to weigh SNS’s track record of mobilizing supporters and managing coalitions against the protest movement’s momentum, with the short campaign window and turnout dynamics among younger and urban voters remaining key variables that could influence final seat outcomes.