Diplomatic initiatives led by the United States and the Quad group of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates remain the primary driver of trader attention on prospects for a Sudan ceasefire. As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces enters its fourth year, recent U.S. calls for an immediate humanitarian truce and safe aid corridors have renewed focus on stalled Quad roadmaps that envision a short-term truce followed by broader political talks. Military stalemate persists, with the army controlling Khartoum and eastern regions while the paramilitary force holds much of Darfur after its 2025 capture of El-Fasher. Ongoing UN and regional mediation efforts, including calls for civilian protection and unrestricted humanitarian access, highlight persistent barriers such as mutual preconditions for withdrawal and external arms flows. Upcoming donor conferences and Security Council sessions could influence momentum toward de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSudan civil war ceasefire by...?
Sudan civil war ceasefire by...?
$92,664 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
June 30, 2026
13%
December 31, 2026
16%
$92,664 Vol.
June 30, 2026
$33,225 Vol.
13%
December 31, 2026
$291 Vol.
16%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Diplomatic initiatives led by the United States and the Quad group of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates remain the primary driver of trader attention on prospects for a Sudan ceasefire. As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces enters its fourth year, recent U.S. calls for an immediate humanitarian truce and safe aid corridors have renewed focus on stalled Quad roadmaps that envision a short-term truce followed by broader political talks. Military stalemate persists, with the army controlling Khartoum and eastern regions while the paramilitary force holds much of Darfur after its 2025 capture of El-Fasher. Ongoing UN and regional mediation efforts, including calls for civilian protection and unrestricted humanitarian access, highlight persistent barriers such as mutual preconditions for withdrawal and external arms flows. Upcoming donor conferences and Security Council sessions could influence momentum toward de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Market Opened: Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ET
Volume
$92,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.Diplomatic initiatives led by the United States and the Quad group of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates remain the primary driver of trader attention on prospects for a Sudan ceasefire. As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces enters its fourth year, recent U.S. calls for an immediate humanitarian truce and safe aid corridors have renewed focus on stalled Quad roadmaps that envision a short-term truce followed by broader political talks. Military stalemate persists, with the army controlling Khartoum and eastern regions while the paramilitary force holds much of Darfur after its 2025 capture of El-Fasher. Ongoing UN and regional mediation efforts, including calls for civilian protection and unrestricted humanitarian access, highlight persistent barriers such as mutual preconditions for withdrawal and external arms flows. Upcoming donor conferences and Security Council sessions could influence momentum toward de-escalation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between the Rapid Support Forces and the Sudanese Armed Forces has been reached will suffice.
Volume
$92,664End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 22, 2025, 2:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic initiatives led by the United States and the Quad group of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates remain the primary driver of trader attention on prospects for a Sudan ceasefire. As the conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and Rapid Support Forces enters its fourth year, recent U.S. calls for an immediate humanitarian truce and safe aid corridors have renewed focus on stalled Quad roadmaps that envision a short-term truce followed by broader political talks. Military stalemate persists, with the army controlling Khartoum and eastern regions while the paramilitary force holds much of Darfur after its 2025 capture of El-Fasher. Ongoing UN and regional mediation efforts, including calls for civilian protection and unrestricted humanitarian access, highlight persistent barriers such as mutual preconditions for withdrawal and external arms flows. Upcoming donor conferences and Security Council sessions could influence momentum toward de-escalation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions