Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have driven Bank of England revisions that now project UK CPI inflation rising above 3.5% by year-end 2026 before easing toward the 2% target. March 2026 CPI printed at 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February, with transport and fuel costs providing the largest contributions. This trajectory supports the market-implied 37.5% probability on the 4.5%+ band and 28.5% on 4.0-4.4%, reflecting trader consensus around persistent but contained upside risks. Key swing factors include the scale of second-round wage and price effects as well as any further escalation in oil prices, while labor-market slack offers a partial offset that could limit overshoots into the higher buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedU.K. Annual Inflation 2026
U.K. Annual Inflation 2026
4.0-4.4% 29%
4.5%+ 23%
3.5–3.9% 21%
1.0–1.4% 4.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
1%
1.0–1.4%
5%
1.5–1.9%
4%
2.0–2.4%
11%
2.5–2.9%
11%
3.5–3.9%
21%
4.0-4.4%
29%
4.5%+
37%
4.0-4.4% 29%
4.5%+ 23%
3.5–3.9% 21%
1.0–1.4% 4.6%
NEW
NEW
Jan 20, 2027
<1.0%
$802 Vol.
1%
1.0–1.4%
$330 Vol.
5%
1.5–1.9%
$483 Vol.
4%
2.0–2.4%
$305 Vol.
11%
2.5–2.9%
$385 Vol.
11%
3.5–3.9%
$525 Vol.
21%
4.0-4.4%
$420 Vol.
29%
4.5%+
$1,080 Vol.
37%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have driven Bank of England revisions that now project UK CPI inflation rising above 3.5% by year-end 2026 before easing toward the 2% target. March 2026 CPI printed at 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February, with transport and fuel costs providing the largest contributions. This trajectory supports the market-implied 37.5% probability on the 4.5%+ band and 28.5% on 4.0-4.4%, reflecting trader consensus around persistent but contained upside risks. Key swing factors include the scale of second-round wage and price effects as well as any further escalation in oil prices, while labor-market slack offers a partial offset that could limit overshoots into the higher buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Market Opened: Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Volume
$4,329End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendarElevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have driven Bank of England revisions that now project UK CPI inflation rising above 3.5% by year-end 2026 before easing toward the 2% target. March 2026 CPI printed at 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February, with transport and fuel costs providing the largest contributions. This trajectory supports the market-implied 37.5% probability on the 4.5%+ band and 28.5% on 4.0-4.4%, reflecting trader consensus around persistent but contained upside risks. Key swing factors include the scale of second-round wage and price effects as well as any further escalation in oil prices, while labor-market slack offers a partial offset that could limit overshoots into the higher buckets.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in the U.K. over the 12-month period ending December 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026, according to the monthly ONS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the ONS Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026 (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases), currently scheduled to be released on January 20, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find this report by choosing the report for the relevant month from the previous releases page for price indices on the ONS website (https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices/bulletins/consumerpriceinflation/previousreleases). The relevant figure can be found in the "Consumer price inflation rates" table under the column labeled "CPI 12-month rate (%)" for the relevant month.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly ONS CPI news release which reports inflation change over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ons.gov.uk/releasecalendar
Volume
$4,329End Date
Jan 20, 2027Market Opened
Jan 21, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Elevated energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict have driven Bank of England revisions that now project UK CPI inflation rising above 3.5% by year-end 2026 before easing toward the 2% target. March 2026 CPI printed at 3.3%, up from 3.0% in February, with transport and fuel costs providing the largest contributions. This trajectory supports the market-implied 37.5% probability on the 4.5%+ band and 28.5% on 4.0-4.4%, reflecting trader consensus around persistent but contained upside risks. Key swing factors include the scale of second-round wage and price effects as well as any further escalation in oil prices, while labor-market slack offers a partial offset that could limit overshoots into the higher buckets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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