The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure policy, anchored in Executive Order 14380 (January 2026) authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and Executive Order 14404 (May 2026) enabling secondary sanctions on foreign entities in Cuba’s energy sector, has driven repeated designations including CUPET in June and additional state firms thereafter. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after Maduro’s removal and halted most Mexican deliveries, deepening Cuba’s fuel shortages and blackouts while Cuba responded with June economic liberalization measures. No official reduction, suspension, or relief of oil-related sanctions has occurred, and the administration continues targeting GAESA-linked and energy entities into September. Trader consensus therefore reflects low implied probability of an announcement, with resolution hinging on any formal easing of restrictions on petroleum sales or transport to Cuban state or military entities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$46,696 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
September 30
25%
December 31
41%
$46,696 Vol.
September 30
$43 Vol.
25%
December 31
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure policy, anchored in Executive Order 14380 (January 2026) authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and Executive Order 14404 (May 2026) enabling secondary sanctions on foreign entities in Cuba’s energy sector, has driven repeated designations including CUPET in June and additional state firms thereafter. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after Maduro’s removal and halted most Mexican deliveries, deepening Cuba’s fuel shortages and blackouts while Cuba responded with June economic liberalization measures. No official reduction, suspension, or relief of oil-related sanctions has occurred, and the administration continues targeting GAESA-linked and energy entities into September. Trader consensus therefore reflects low implied probability of an announcement, with resolution hinging on any formal easing of restrictions on petroleum sales or transport to Cuban state or military entities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ET
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure policy, anchored in Executive Order 14380 (January 2026) authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and Executive Order 14404 (May 2026) enabling secondary sanctions on foreign entities in Cuba’s energy sector, has driven repeated designations including CUPET in June and additional state firms thereafter. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after Maduro’s removal and halted most Mexican deliveries, deepening Cuba’s fuel shortages and blackouts while Cuba responded with June economic liberalization measures. No official reduction, suspension, or relief of oil-related sanctions has occurred, and the administration continues targeting GAESA-linked and energy entities into September. Trader consensus therefore reflects low implied probability of an announcement, with resolution hinging on any formal easing of restrictions on petroleum sales or transport to Cuban state or military entities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or the United States federal government officially announces any reduction, suspension, removal, or similar relief for U.S. sanctions related to the sale or transport of oil, fuel or other petroleum products to Cuba between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying announcement must explicitly indicate that U.S. restrictions, sanctions, penalties, or threats of penalties related to oil or fuel trade with Cuba will be suspended, reduced, removed, or otherwise substantively relaxed.
An announcement that the United States will not impose tariffs on countries exporting oil to Cuba will qualify.
Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, expressions of openness, or other non-definitive statements will not qualify.
Any qualifying announcement within this market’s time frame will count, regardless of whether or when the announced relief goes into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump and the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$46,696End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Jun 22, 2026, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration’s maximum-pressure policy, anchored in Executive Order 14380 (January 2026) authorizing tariffs on third-country oil suppliers and Executive Order 14404 (May 2026) enabling secondary sanctions on foreign entities in Cuba’s energy sector, has driven repeated designations including CUPET in June and additional state firms thereafter. These steps followed the cutoff of Venezuelan shipments after Maduro’s removal and halted most Mexican deliveries, deepening Cuba’s fuel shortages and blackouts while Cuba responded with June economic liberalization measures. No official reduction, suspension, or relief of oil-related sanctions has occurred, and the administration continues targeting GAESA-linked and energy entities into September. Trader consensus therefore reflects low implied probability of an announcement, with resolution hinging on any formal easing of restrictions on petroleum sales or transport to Cuban state or military entities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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