Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 88.1% implied probability for the company through top-tier results on LiveBench coding tasks, reflecting consistent leadership in recent contamination-resistant evaluations of large language model performance on programming problems. Traders appear to view its demonstrated capabilities in code generation and agentic workflows as a durable edge heading into the end-of-September resolution, especially after mid-2026 updates that widened gaps versus competitors. OpenAI sits at just 10% amid solid but trailing GPT-6 series showings, while the long tail of other providers at 0.1–1.5% reflects limited recent evidence of surpassing Anthropic on this specific benchmark. With the market closing in days, any final leaderboard refresh could still shift sentiment if new model variants or scoring adjustments emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87.9%
OpenAI 9.7%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
88%
OpenAI
10%
SpaceXAI
1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87.9%
OpenAI 9.7%
SpaceXAI 1.4%
Meta <1%
$62,173 Vol.
$62,173 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$21,896 Vol.
88%
OpenAI
$20,318 Vol.
10%
SpaceXAI
$3,129 Vol.
1%
Meta
$3,162 Vol.
<1%
$378 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$777 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$791 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$517 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$1,144 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$838 Vol.
<1%
DeepSeek
$810 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$860 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$886 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$1,293 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$811 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$912 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$428 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$1,096 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$937 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$839 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$348 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 88.1% implied probability for the company through top-tier results on LiveBench coding tasks, reflecting consistent leadership in recent contamination-resistant evaluations of large language model performance on programming problems. Traders appear to view its demonstrated capabilities in code generation and agentic workflows as a durable edge heading into the end-of-September resolution, especially after mid-2026 updates that widened gaps versus competitors. OpenAI sits at just 10% amid solid but trailing GPT-6 series showings, while the long tail of other providers at 0.1–1.5% reflects limited recent evidence of surpassing Anthropic on this specific benchmark. With the market closing in days, any final leaderboard refresh could still shift sentiment if new model variants or scoring adjustments emerge.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volume
$62,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 88.1% implied probability for the company through top-tier results on LiveBench coding tasks, reflecting consistent leadership in recent contamination-resistant evaluations of large language model performance on programming problems. Traders appear to view its demonstrated capabilities in code generation and agentic workflows as a durable edge heading into the end-of-September resolution, especially after mid-2026 updates that widened gaps versus competitors. OpenAI sits at just 10% amid solid but trailing GPT-6 series showings, while the long tail of other providers at 0.1–1.5% reflects limited recent evidence of surpassing Anthropic on this specific benchmark. With the market closing in days, any final leaderboard refresh could still shift sentiment if new model variants or scoring adjustments emerge.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$62,173End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=CodingResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's Claude Fable 5.1 has driven the 88.1% implied probability for the company through top-tier results on LiveBench coding tasks, reflecting consistent leadership in recent contamination-resistant evaluations of large language model performance on programming problems. Traders appear to view its demonstrated capabilities in code generation and agentic workflows as a durable edge heading into the end-of-September resolution, especially after mid-2026 updates that widened gaps versus competitors. OpenAI sits at just 10% amid solid but trailing GPT-6 series showings, while the long tail of other providers at 0.1–1.5% reflects limited recent evidence of surpassing Anthropic on this specific benchmark. With the market closing in days, any final leaderboard refresh could still shift sentiment if new model variants or scoring adjustments emerge.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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