Anthropic’s commanding 87% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus that its latest Claude large language model variants currently lead LiveBench’s mathematics category, driven by superior performance on competition-style problems and Olympiad-level quantitative reasoning tasks. Recent benchmark snapshots show Anthropic models maintaining an edge in dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT releases, which sit at just 12%. With the September 30 resolution less than a week away, limited new model drops or leaderboard refreshes have reinforced this positioning, though any last-minute capability demonstration in advanced math benchmarks could still shift sentiment. Other labs trail sharply at 0.1%, underscoring the concentrated frontier competition between these two developers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnthropic 87%
OpenAI 12%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$52,367 Vol.
$52,367 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
87%
OpenAI
12%
DeepSeek
<1%
Meta
<1%
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Baidu
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
Amazon
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Thinky
<1%
MiniMax
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 87%
OpenAI 12%
DeepSeek <1%
Meta <1%
$52,367 Vol.
$52,367 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Anthropic
$17,545 Vol.
87%
OpenAI
$15,996 Vol.
12%
DeepSeek
$3,240 Vol.
<1%
Meta
$659 Vol.
<1%
$1,550 Vol.
<1%
Alibaba
$807 Vol.
<1%
Moonshot
$1,070 Vol.
<1%
Baidu
$689 Vol.
<1%
Z.ai
$848 Vol.
<1%
Xiaomi
$574 Vol.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$903 Vol.
<1%
Amazon
$803 Vol.
<1%
ByteDance
$864 Vol.
<1%
Nvidia
$926 Vol.
<1%
Thinky
$768 Vol.
<1%
MiniMax
$748 Vol.
<1%
Mistral
$682 Vol.
<1%
Meituan
$657 Vol.
<1%
Tencent
$934 Vol.
<1%
StepFun
$686 Vol.
<1%
Microsoft
$1,416 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s commanding 87% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus that its latest Claude large language model variants currently lead LiveBench’s mathematics category, driven by superior performance on competition-style problems and Olympiad-level quantitative reasoning tasks. Recent benchmark snapshots show Anthropic models maintaining an edge in dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT releases, which sit at just 12%. With the September 30 resolution less than a week away, limited new model drops or leaderboard refreshes have reinforced this positioning, though any last-minute capability demonstration in advanced math benchmarks could still shift sentiment. Other labs trail sharply at 0.1%, underscoring the concentrated frontier competition between these two developers.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
Volume
$52,367End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic’s commanding 87% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus that its latest Claude large language model variants currently lead LiveBench’s mathematics category, driven by superior performance on competition-style problems and Olympiad-level quantitative reasoning tasks. Recent benchmark snapshots show Anthropic models maintaining an edge in dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT releases, which sit at just 12%. With the September 30 resolution less than a week away, limited new model drops or leaderboard refreshes have reinforced this positioning, though any last-minute capability demonstration in advanced math benchmarks could still shift sentiment. Other labs trail sharply at 0.1%, underscoring the concentrated frontier competition between these two developers.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Mathematics score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on September 30, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Mathematics” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Mathematics, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Mathematics,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Volume
$52,367End Date
Sep 30, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolution Source
https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=MathematicsResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic’s commanding 87% market-implied probability reflects trader consensus that its latest Claude large language model variants currently lead LiveBench’s mathematics category, driven by superior performance on competition-style problems and Olympiad-level quantitative reasoning tasks. Recent benchmark snapshots show Anthropic models maintaining an edge in dynamic, contamination-resistant math evaluations over OpenAI’s o-series and GPT releases, which sit at just 12%. With the September 30 resolution less than a week away, limited new model drops or leaderboard refreshes have reinforced this positioning, though any last-minute capability demonstration in advanced math benchmarks could still shift sentiment. Other labs trail sharply at 0.1%, underscoring the concentrated frontier competition between these two developers.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions